Research On China's Economic Growth Convergence Among Provinces

Economic growth is the basic of a national and regional economic development and social progress, economic growth has always been one of the main topics of economic research, which economists particular concern is that long-term trend of economic growth. From the new classical economics birth, the regional economic growth of the long-term trend, the existence of convergence, the convergence speed and the reason of convergence has been deeply attracted economists view.The economy in our country performing well reflected in its economic growth rate, since the reform and open policy, our country with an average annual GDP growth rate of 9.8%. In human history, only seven of the country (region) had to average annual growth rate of more than 7% growth over thirty years, China is one of them, and it is one of the biggest economies. However, the overall economic rapid growth at the same time, the phenomenon such as the widening gap between the region has intensified. The domestic and foreign scholars has given high attention on China region development, which is not balanced on the formation and development of the trend, in view of China's economic development process of regional could realize convergence and the path of the convergence, The domestic and foreign scholars has made extensive and profound research, however, because of the scholars use the different research methods, from different research angle and use the different data selection, which lead to scholars put forward different ideas, and there exists large dispute.This article is on the basis of the domestic and overseas scholars' related research, through careful combing the economic growth theory and growth convergence theory, with increasing convergence theory as a foundation, the integrated use of theory and empirical analysis research methods, analysis from the reform and open policy to now, in the process of the economic growth of our country, regional among provinces whether there is aσconvergence, absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence, club convergence phenomenon, hoping to find the internal cause of convergence, and on this basis to put forward the corresponding policy, in order to have some positive theoretical and realistic significance for reducing the regional gap.Through using Barro and Sala-I-Martin and later scholars to the classification of convergence phenomenon, this paper makes a detailed analysis since the reform and open in China on the whole and east, middle and west regions internal convergence on per capita income level (σconvergence) and convergence on economic growth rate (βconvergence), which we had done a concrete analysis by empirical test. In this paper the empirical results show that on the whole China and east, middle and west areas there are absoluteβconvergence phenomenon, but no matter among provinces or regional inspection, equation F statistics are slants small, R2 and adjusted R2 value also slants small, so it is necessary to further inspection of conditional P convergence; On refering literature about the previous research of China's economic growth convergence, this paper join a series of control variables in order to better inspection and interpretation theβconvergence and the reason of convergence phenomenon in the process of China's economic growth, after joining the control variables, the empirical results show high fitting degree, each control variable symbol meet our started expected, and presented the higher significant, which show our state's overall existence conditionalβconvergence, which lead to the conditionalβconvergence including:population (employment) growth rate, the savings rate, common higher school enrollment rate which measure human capital, government consumption rate, foreign direct rate and non-state-owned economy employment which measures the process of marketization; After that, we further measure the convergence speed. So far, we draw the conclusion:from the reform to now, on the overall our country presents P convergence, and in the east, middle and west the three regions inside their existing "club convergence". In the inspection for per capita income standard deviation, the per capita GDP standard deviation and the output GDP standard deviation are two variables we choose to study, and the results showed that the per capita GDP standard deviation and the output GDP standard deviation display or spread in trend is roughly same. but. the convergence time appeared opposite:among provinces in our country, regionalσconvergence exist stage, and each area of convergence time are not identical, including the eastern region in the study period convergence phenomenon is most obvious:The central region present the coefficient of waves on the trend of the movement between 1978 to 1990, and after 1991 the tendency revealed a reduced, but the trend of present obvious weak convergence phenomenon; in the western region and the output GDP and per capita GDP standard deviation are differences tiny in numerical, and presented the highly consistent change:between 1978 to 1983. two numerical are expanding, during 1983 to 1988 the trend obviously narrow, until after 1992 basic maintain a level changes which show after 1992, there is a slight increase (divergent) trend. We also found that the test of with economic growth is not completely convergence phenomenon, individual time appear even the obvious divergent trend:such as the national areas of per capita GDP convergence test show when, after 1992, the national among provinces index is continuously increasing, and presents the obvious per capita income of the divergent phenomenon.Based on the empirical studies about the characteristics of China's economic convergence, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions in order to promote provinces and regional development coordinately, and avoid the regional gap too large and the loss of whole social welfare.