The Research Of Financial Crisis Contagion Under The Visual Angle Of Subprime Mortagage Crisis

Financial crisis contagion is defined as the phenomena that in a background of open economic system, financial crisis happened in one country and spread to other countries, and there occurs shocks transnational transmit. Financial crisis contagion not only do harm to one country's economy and society, but also has strong impact on other countries and even the whole world, lead to global financial chaos and entire economy depression. So it's necessary to research the issue of financial crisis contagion, and put forward some well-directed contermeasure to deal with crisis.Subprime mortgage crisis burst out in US in 2007, it's a financial crisis essentially, but it's effect exceed one country and almost reach all of the main countries in the world. In this paper, I apply Subprime mortgage crisis as the visual angle of research, adopt the research method that combines theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, and the method that combines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, attempt to give some effective suggestions to be on guard of crisis contagion.First, I employ theoretical analysis method, summarize the financial crisis contagion issue from three aspects——meaning, correlation theory, channel of contagion, it present financial crisis contagion basic theory systematically to reader on one side, and also foreshadows the following text on the other side. On this basis, I make qualitative analysis on Subprime mortgage crisis contagion, actually investigate the macro and micro causes and operation mechanism of Subprime crisis contagion, manifest the current situation of Subprime crisis. Then, I utilize quantitative analysis method to research Subprime mortgage crisis contagion effect, make use of co-integration test, Granger cause test and impulse response function to do emipirical anaysis. The result demenstrate the effect of Subprime crisis contagion is obvious, other countries are affected by crisis widely in a long period. The impact from this crisis is most obvious in Western Europe especially, while in China is small, this is in relation with financial openness and development of capital market.At last, according to the above paragraph, I mention some general countermeasures to encounter with financial crisis contagion: reinforce international cooperation of financial supervision, establish international crisis warning system, strengthen international governance of crisis. Besides, I refer a series of concret measure in connection with Chinese reality such as :carry forward capital account liberalize,reform the RMB exchange rate, advance the healthy development of capital market,enjoy multi-levels of international cooperarion and communication, and all of above would be useful in the might be financial crisis and contagion in future.