The Risk Of Reverse Mortagage Reserch Based On The Real Estate Value Predition

The degree of population aging in our country is deepening, the aged problem in the background of aging becomes the focus of the society. Different from developed country, China entered the aging society is in the case of old before getting rich. In addition, China's old-age security system has not been perfect and a huge gap in pension fund, the aged's quality of life is not guaranteed. As a financial products which meet the demand of social endowment, the reverse mortgage can provide a supplement to China's incomplete old age security system, it also add new source of income for old people and improve the aged's quality of life. It's clear that China launch the reverse mortgage business has certain practical significance and necessity.Although the reverse mortgage was put forward in China since2003for the first time become the hot spot of scholars and experts'researching, has no substantial progress in promotion. The reason is various, one of the most important point is the risk of the reverse mortgage which is carried out by loan lenders can't be accurately grasp and control. So the risk of reverse mortgage is researched in this paper, in hopes of providing an idea for risk controlling of reverse mortgage and making some contribution to the implementation of reverse mortgage in our country.First, the paper introduces the meaning,offer way, basic theory of the reverse mortgage and related theory of risk management. Second, the paper distinguishes the risk on the reverse mortgage operation from both borrowers and lenders, especially on the lenders'side. According to the analysis, I think during the reverse mortgage's operation, the main risk that the lenders meet is longevity risk, interest rate risk and house value risk. Third, based on the risk identification, I use BP neural network to build a prediction model on house value risk. This model forecast the house value risk both in the factors which influence residential average price and the residential average price over the years. Fourth, construct risk assessment index system from longevity risk, interest rate risk and house value risk and introduce the main method of risk assessment. Finally, according to the above risk analysis, the paper put forward the measures and suggestions of risk prevention.