Study On Risk Evaluation Of Reverse Mortgage In China

With the rapid development of the economy,the level of medical care is constantly improving.The birth control policy implemented in the 1980 s has caused a sharp drop in the number of newborns in China,and our country has entered an aging society.With the passage of time,the ageing of our country is very serious,which has brought tremendous pressure on our country's finances.The housing reverse mortgage,as a new type of pension,can not only achieve the reasonable allocation of resources for the elderly but also reduce the financial burden on our country.However,since China's promotion in 2015,the development of reverse mortgage has been slow.Therefore,the research on the risk of housing reverse mortgage is the most important part of the current research.This article systematically studies the basic concepts and related connotations of housing reverse mortgage,and summarizes the research status at home and abroad.By referring to the development experience in the reverse mortgage market in developed countries,we propose the operating model of china for the promotion of housing mortgage.Through the profound study of domestic and foreign literature review,this article pointed out that the domestic lack of research on the risk of reverse mortgage,and elicited this paper's ideas.Firstly,This paper identifies various risks faced by China's housing reverse mortgage loan through literature analysis,which includ policy risk,economic risk,human factor risk and natural accident risk,and analyzes the impact of various risk factors on reverse mortgage.Secondly,this paper constructs a risk evaluation index system based on the identified risk factors,chooses to use the subjective and objective combination weighting method to calculate the weights of risk assessment indicators,and builds a new risk assessment model based on the matter element analysis method.Based on the “Happy House to treasure” introduced by Happiness Life Insurance Company,which is the only housing reverse mortgage product in China,this paper uses the risk assessment model constructed in the previous article to evaluate the risk of this product.Through the research on the risk of the product,it was determined that the product “Happy House to treasure” has a lower risk.According to the reality,which the development of this product has encountered obstacles,and through the analysis of the balance of the product's break-even and sensitivity analysis,we conclude that the product has a "overly-conservative design" and propose improvement direction for the subsequent development of the product.According to the fact that the development of this product has encountered obstacles,this article concludes that the product is "overly conservative" by analyzing the product's Breakeven analysis,and proposes the improvement for the product.