Analyse And Management Of Investment And Financing Risks Of Shanxi Railway Construction Projects Invested By China Development Bank

The future direction of China's railway transport development has been pointed out after the introduction of "the National Long-term Railway Network Plan "and"12th Five-Year Plan. So huge demand for funds is needed in this unprecedented scale of the railway construction that traditional railway construction funding sources alone are not able to support, the contradiction is highlighted.As one of China's most important energy provinces, Shanxi, being consistent with the national strategic planning, also faces of a large amount of railway construction project. Considering the large capital demand and the long project cycle, banks willing to invest in these projects are facing many risks.Taking China Development Bank's investment in railway construction project in Shanxi for example, this paper clarifies the investment and financing risks of railway construction project and the necessity for CDB's support. I select three representative lines for example, they're "Mid-south Coal Transportation Corridor ","Daxi Dedicated Passenger Transport Line" and "Taixing Railway". By analyzing the modules of the project construction debt, operational income and expenditure module, design the risk assessment of the investment and financing model. And after collect coal traffic, passenger traffic and GDP data, use a variety of costs, income measurement methods to analyze railway investment and financing risk in multi-scenario way. Test the cash flow, the profit and the other influencing factors, and give appropriate policy recommendations on the risks may exist in the process of construction project in banking perspective and national perspective.