The Research On The Risks Allocation Of BOT Project In Expressway Based On Game Theory

The BOT project in expressway has the characteristics of large investment, long period for payback and complex risk, therefore, in order to make the project proceed smoothly, we should do further study on the risk sharing of the project.At present, most of the research on the risk sharing of BOT project in expressway is conducted between the government and the investors, but with the practice of the BOT project in expressway in China, operators will separate from the investors gradually, this paper aims to study the issue of risk sharing between the investors and the operators in the expressway BOT project, and establish the appropriate system.On the basis of previous risk sharing between the government and the investors, this paper studies the risk sharing between the investors and the operators in the expressway BOT project with the principal-agent model of game theory, and on this basis of which, establish the incentives system and restraint system.First, on the basis of the relevant studies, define the concept of BOT, then identify and analysis the risk of the BOT project in expressway. Based on the analysis of the general risk, combined with the subject of the risk sharing of expressway BOT project, do the further study on the main risk factors according to the subjects. And make sure the subject and the object of the risk-sharing in expressway BOT project when the operator is separated from the investor, and study the relationship among different subjects, which makes the foundation of the following model.Second, on the basis of the risk-sharing between the government and the investors, improve the principal-agent model of risk-sharing between them, analysis the risk-sharing model between the investor and the operator in the expressway BOT project, and the results of the model show that risk-sharing of the expressway BOT projects are related to the risk aversion of the principal and the agent, and establish a risk-sharing system, including the incentive system and restraint system.Finally, select the YM expressway BOT project as a case to do the analysis. In the analysis of this case, using the model of the game theory between the investor and the operator in expressway BOT project to analyze and find that the establishment of the incentive systems and the constraint system is closely related to risk-sharing in the case of asymmetric information.