Price Optimization Research Of Information Goods Based On Consumers' Multi-stage Purchasing Behavior With The Piracy Effects

The improvement of information technology not only enhances the digital level of information goods but also reduces the cost of piracy. Piracy information goods have illegal competition effects on the genuine information goods and they not only spoliated suppliers' legal income but also decreased the positivity of research and development. Many researchers find that piracy can give customers the opportunity of experience the goods and it can extend the user base to produce positive externality effects. This is the positive piracy effect said by Pro. Stephen. Theory and practice have proved that suppliers should consider the piracy effects while the piracy couldn't be totally prohibited by low and technology. Information goods are experienced goods with low marginal cost and the core element of their pricing is customers' judgment of product value. Most information goods charge by periods so that customers make decision renewedly after each period. This is the multi-stage purchasing behavior of customers in information goods markets. But customers'value judgment of information goods will change with the usage experience, so that consumers'purchase probabilities are different in different stages. From the above, piracy effects and multistage purchasing behavior enhance the difficulty of pricing information goods. So this paper firstly the multistage dynamic changing model of estimation of consumers'reservation price and consumers purchasing probability model in information goods market with piracy. Based on these the estimation and forecasting approach of demand state with incompleteness information were put forward. At last, an price optimization model for information goods is developed. The results of experiment proved the validity of the optimization model and also proved that scientific pricing can not only improve the income of suppliers but also restrain the piracy size.