Evolution Mechanism And Cooperated Emergency Management Mechanism For Snow Disaster

Snow disaster has a significant impact on densely populated area of high industrialized and high degree of concentration of lifeline engineering. The disaster not only results in huge direct damage, but also induces a variety of secondary disasters. The damage caused by secondary disasters is sometime even heavier than the direct losses caused by the snow disaster. So, the evolution mechanism and emergency management of the snow disaster becomes critical. But now, the research of snow disaster is prevalence of the following shortcomings. First, the research of a single secondary disaster is not enough, and evolutionary theory and relationships between the various secondary disasters is inadequate. Second, even if the research involves the disasters and the law of development, it is mainly to analyze the problem from the qualitative point of view and it is lack of quantitative research.This study was supported by Humanities and Social Science Research Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China (No.08JC630067), which is named "Chain Evolution Mechanism and Collaborative Emergency Management of Unexpected Public Incidents". On the basis of the disaster system theory, Snow disasters chain of events, domino theory and complex system brittleness theory, this paper analysis of the evolution mechanism of the snow disaster. Beginning, this paper analysis typical snow disaster at home and abroad to determine disasters network nodes. By using the disasters network nodes, this paper establishment of the network structure with fault tree relationship-oriented. After that, Considering the snow disaster’s dynamics and the network structure of Snow Disaster and its Secondary—Derivative Network (SDSDN). The paper proposed an evolutionary model of snow disaster and its secondary—derivative network based on domino effect theory. The paper took the snow disaster occurred in the west of China in2008as example, analyzed the dynamic processes of the snow disaster and the coupled relationship between each process. What’s more, by using the brittleness reason of internal and external mechanisms of Snow Disaster and its Secondary—Derivative Network, the paper established a brittleness network model including brittleness factor and brittle events based on the Graph Theory. This paper analyzes the model structure of each subsystem and decomposed them into a number of brittle factor, then this paper analysis and calculation the brittleness risk entropy of the system. The paper took the snow disaster occurred in the west of China in2008as example, analysis the main brittleness factor which cause a system crash, then compare the results with the actual situation to improve the feasibility of this method. Finally, based on the research of network vulnerability and coupling mechanism of evolution mechanism in snow disaster and disaster evolving network, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the snow disaster emergency management and research the emergency management decision-making objectives, decision-making body during the evolution of snow disaster. Then, this paper built an emergency management mechanism by considering the evolution chain of the snow disaster and the situation of china. This paper provides a reference for the establishment and improvement of emergency management system of China’s urban.This study is significant in the area of the snow disaster emergency management and it helps the emergency management decision makers to comprehensively regard the snow Disaster and its Secondary—Derivative Network from the same view. The snow disaster evolution network model based on the domino theory has great significance on the out breaking、development and fighting against the disaster of different disaster levels. It can predict the next step’s occurrence situation of secondary disasters so that emergency relief departments can be auxiliary to prepare in advance. It also strongly interfere with the disaster the weak link in the evolution of network in order to enhance the relief work efficiency of disaster, reduce the loss of snow disaster to human society.