The Southern Snow Disaster Crisis Evolution And Risk Control Study

Snow disaster is analyzed based on South China snow disaster using disaster evolution theories. Basing on the process of the snow disaster evolution and the relationship of snow disaster crises, the evolvement mechanism and inducement mechanism are obtained and the risk controlling methods are given. Research purpose is to reduce the damage influence of the snow disaster crises, and provide theoretical foundation for controlling them.The following works have been fulfilled in this dissertation:(1) Contraposing to the studying of process of south China snow disaster evolution, three characteristic of snow disaster evolvement including the process of energy transmission, evolution stage and evolvement speciality is proposed. The composing of snow disaster evolution system and four styles evolution chain which are straight chain, straight divergent chain, self-circulation chain and concentrative chain are analyzed combining system engineering theory based on the process of sonw disaster crises evlution.(2) According to the research of snow disaster evlution characteristic, inducement mechanism form and inducement factors of the crises are studied. Quantitative classification of inducement factors is researched basing on the correlation statistics analyzing. Rules extraction of inducement factors and forecast inducement mechanism are given using rough set theory.(3) On the basic of characteristic of snow disaster evolvement and crises inducement mechanism researching, energy transmission, evolution stage and the styles of evolution chian are considered when the risk controlling measures are given. Four steps emergency manage of snow disaster including prevention, ready, reaponse and recover are obtained basing on the risk controlling measures.The process of south China snow disaster evolution and the course of risk control are further studied in this paper. The research result is applied to the project of Beijing Research Center of Urban System Engineering which is the research of typical disaster evlution and risk controlling in Beijing demonstration area.