Early-warning Signals For Outbreak Of Influenza Pandemic

The influenza pandemic in the history has brought human a major disaster. The studies for the influenza virus have become an important issue of many experts and scholars. They have made a comprehensive research for the influenza virus from their biological properties, chemical characteristics and external environmental factors and other aspects, and have achieved some results. Based on Chaos Game Representation (CGR) walk model, this paper uses time series analysis method to study DNA sequences of the influenza virus from1913to2010? and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for outbreak of influenza pandemic, that is, the variances of CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or+-1to2years) are significantly higher than those for the nearby years, while those for the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can construct the influenza early-warning mechanism, so that people can take precautions and get well prepared before the outbreak of influenza pandemic. But we need datas in the coming years for early-warning mechanism, then we can get only through the prediction. Many experts have given some prediction models for influenza virus sequence from different perspectives, and continue to find the optimal model. This paper presents a method which uses time-series model to predict bases. For the60selected influenza viruses from1951to2010, we use ARFIMA (p, d, q) model to fit and predict its former988positions, almost all the raw datas are in the forecast region except a few, indicating that this model is more reasonable, and achieve the desired effect, which has important significance for the prediction of influenza virus.The innovations of this paper are:1、Work out the early-warning signals indicator value for outbreak of influenza pandemic, in which we can construct the influenza early-warning mechanism.2、Present a method which uses time-series model, and use ARFIMA (p, d, q) model to fit and predict the datas.3、Predict the datas, then make the use of early-warning mechanisms, so that people can take precautions and get well prepared before the outbreak of influenza pandemic.