Industrial Wastewater And Main Pollutants Emissions Forecast Of Shaanxi Province

Based on the grey theory this thesis takes the industrial wastewater discharge situation in shaanxi province as the research object. Using the real data of industrial wastewater discharge situation in shaanxi province during2003to2008years, analysis and comparison traditional GM (1,1) model and the optimization GM (1,1) model of their simulation and forecast precision. The results shows that compare with the traditional GM (1,1) model, the optimization GM (1,1) model fitted values’s relative error is smaller and precision is higher. According to the principle of "new information is priority", the same dimension gray filling model is established which based on optimization of GM (1,1) model of industrial and main pollutant emissions in Shaanxi Province during "the Twelfth Five-Year Plan".The forcast results in the "the Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period indicates that:the industrial wastewater’s emissions increase slowly,the COD’s emissions in the industrial wastewater reduce slowly,and the NH3-N’s emissions in the industrial wastewater increase slowlyThe qualitative analysis what about the economical scale, science and technology input factor, resources consumption factor, environmental protection policy factor and environmental protection foreign cooperation factor which are impacted industrial wastewater and main pollutant emissions in Shaanxi Province is done, determined that the factors of economical scale factor,science and technology input factor and resources consumption factor are more direct influence industrial wastewater emissions in Shaanxi Province. Uses the gray relational method to analyze and sort the above three factors,and get the result that interrelatedness size is scientific and technological input factor> resource consumption factor> economies of scale factor. Based on three factors above and combined with economic development goals and pollutant emission reduction targets in "the Twelfth Five-Year Plan" planning of shaanxi province, proposed the high, medium and low speed development situation prediction schemes to forecast the industrial wastewater, COD and NH3-N’s emissions in industrial wastewater of shaanxi province in final of "the Twelfth Five-Year Plan". Obtained the forecasting results and made suggestions.