Research Of Natural Protective Effect Based On Reliability Methods

Natural reserve is an essential part of natural resource management. Natural protective effect is the result of natural resource management. And natural protective effect is always one of the core research subjects of natural resource management. The researches both on the evaluation and management of natural reserves and on natural resource using pattern and the influence on reserves and biodiversity, discuss the natural protective effect from different aspects. From the perspective of reliability, this paper abstracts the natural reserves as a reliability system. According to the reliability theory and analysis of key factors affecting natural protective effect, the paper sets random reliability models to describe the natural protective effect. Results of the models reveal the characteristics and patterns of natural protective effect, providing scientific guidance and evidence for resource management in natural reserves.After a literature review, this paper studies the factors that influence the natural protective effect, discusses the reliability system of operation and development in natural reserves, and summarizes the feature. Then in order to describe the natural protective effect quantificationally, the paper sets up the shock models, conducts an analogue simulation on the reliability system of Liziba forest ecosystem and Caohai wetland ecosystem by using the fact finding data and MATLAB software. The life distribution of the system explains the pattern of resource management and protective effect.Based on reliability theory, this paper gives a look at natural protective effect, and the research shows:In essence, three kinds of factors influencing the natural protective effect including natural factors, biological factors, and human factors, are random, which can be regarded as random "shock" to the natural protective effect. Under this condition, the development of natural reserve system has the clear reliability feature, which goes like ’be shocked-change performance-malfunction’. Thus natural reserve system is a typical reliability system. The life distribution of Liziba forest ecosystem varies a lot in three different conditions, shows that different protective patterns lead to different protective effects, and the present pattern and effect are optimal. As a result of strong human interference recently, the natural protective effect in Caohai wetland ecosystem is poor. Concrete manifestations are: notable reduction of system reliability, loss of partial functions, be on the point of functional collapse.