Forecast And Analysis Of Carbon Emissions Demand On Residents Consumption Of Shanghai City

With fast development of the economic and the intensifies of urbanization havebrought enormous pressure to social and environmental, unsustainable food-carbon is oneimportant contributor to global environmental problems. Shanghai is the biggest city ofChina, in which both of population, economy, living standard and the energy consumptionare the forefront of the nation. This paper studies the present situation of residentsconsumption carbon emissions in Shanghai by carbon emission factors method, which hasthree parts such as: residential energy consumption, transportation energy consumption andfood consumption. Based on the current development situation and Shanghai"twelfth-five" planning, the baseline scene, low-carbon scene and strengtheninglow-carbon scene were designed under different development modes. Under thethree development situation, this article predict the demand of residentsconsumption carbon emissions, and an analysis is provided base on comparison ofresults.The results showed that: In2010, the demand of Shanghai`s urban-rural per capitaresidents energy consumption carbon emissions are87.69kg and140.33kg, the totalamount of urban-rural difference is notable. The rated passenger capacity of rail transitcapacity is the second part in public transportation from2005, and it is1.884billion in2010. The structure of transportation way has changed. The main form of urban residentsdiet structure is the "vegetables, corn, and fresh fruits and meat primarily" multiple pattern,while the main form of rural residents diet structure is the "corn, vegetables primarily"pattern and keep invariant and improves gradually. The rated passenger capacity of railtransit capacity is more than50%of public transportation, and the carbon emissions is lessthan10%of public transportation. Thus, the development of rail transportation has greatpotential. Under the three scenes, the different demand of residents consumption carbonemissions between191.7-4.946million t, accounting for about6.2-14.6%in the totaldemand of residents consumption carbon emissions in2050. Policy guide and technologypromotion is the important factor of energy conservation and emission reduction. In2010,the urban-rural per capita food carbon emissions are59.24kg and67.73kg, the totalconsumption are1.2709million t and0.1066million t. Population flow is the main factorsto cause the different demand of urban-rural food consumption carbon emissions. The research conclusions can provide the theory basis for establish measure ofcarbon emission reduction by Shanghai government. It is of greater referencesignificance to research energy-saving and carbon emission reduction on otherprovinces and cities and regions in future. The result can also provide importanttheory and empirical basis in international climate negotiations for our country.