Research On The Strange Tide Disaster Assessment Methods

State Council Information Office published "China’s mitigation actions" whitepaper on May11,2009, the book pointed out that China’s natural disasters presentsfour major characteristics as flows: many kinds, wide geographic distribution, highfrequency, resulting in heavy loss. Because of the special geographical location andcomplexity of the Tides, Nantong long the coast, especially at Rudong coast, is easy toform a Strange Tide which caused heavy losses to the local fishermen’s lives andproperty. Disaster assessment is foundation to study of the disaster prediction,prevention and even disaster compensation. Only with fast and accurate assessment ofnatural disasters, we can effectively carry out the work of disaster prevention andreduction and reduce the loss of local fishermen.Different study perspective and evaluation purposes have different assessmentfocus. Disaster assessment can be summarized as disaster risk assessment, damageassessment, environmental assessment and benefits assessment of disaster reductionproject. Damage assessment is generally divided into two phases: the first is buildingdamage assessment index system; the second is choosing the right quantitativeassessment method of disaster losses and then using.Damage assessment is a typical application of computer technology combinedwith the theory of the disaster. It has not yet formed a unified standard in the industry,which how to evaluate damage by computer technology quickly and accurately.This paper gives a rapid and accurate assessment method for the Strange Tidewhich frequent occurrence in northern Jiangsu, providing basic foundation for decisionsupport of disaster reduction. It includes the following three areas:1) Made the assessment index of Strange Tide disaster in northern JiangsuShallow. Combination of natural disasters in China, especially the evaluation criteria ofthe marine disasters, classification standards of security incidents and actual data tables of Nantong1959-2008accidents, the four evaluation index of Strange Tide disasterassessment---the number of operations, the number of production tools, economicinvestment of farming area, breeding area, and the disaster classification criteria basedon four indicators.2) Establish algorithms and models of quantitative assessment of disaster losses.After studying the evaluation algorithms by predecessors on the first step, we comparethe BP neural network and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in Strange Tide theapplication effect of the disaster assessment in the following several aspects: algorithmrunning time, evaluation results and the error size of practical results; And improvedfuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, using the gray relational analysis derivedweight set, the experimental results prove that the method can improve the accuracy ofassessment of disasters.3) In view of the above work, implements a strange tide disaster assessmentsubsystem. In the disaster assessment system, we realized the grey fuzzy evaluationmethod analysis and the BP neural network method respectively. The user can chooseeither of evaluation method according to their need.We analyze the systematic process of the disaster assessment, determine thedisaster evaluation index, choosing, comparing and analyzing the disaster quantitativeevaluation method. We improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method--grayanalysis fuzzy evaluation method. We emulate each disaster assessment method, andcompare the advantages and disadvantages of them, At last, we realize the grey fuzzyevaluation method and the BP neural network model in Java and Flex, using them inthe strange tide disaster evaluation, and the results are proved effective.