The Early Warning Research On Water Quality In Urbanization Of The Region Around Poyang Lake

Water quality is related to the industry production and people’s life closely. It can affect the social harmony and the economic development. In2009."The Plan on Poyang Lake Eco-econimic Zone" was officially approved. For the region around the Poyang Lake, with the support of both national and regional policies, the near future will be a period that the urbanization is accelerated. The demand for energy and resources will increase greatly, and the task of saving energy and reducing pollution will be much heavier. So, the pressure caused by environment protection will be prominent. For water quality, the process of urbanization has become one significant influencing factor. In this situation, it will be of great practical significance to reveal the state and evolution trend of water quality in the region around the Poyang Lake and to make early warning.This paper analyzed the current situation of water quality in the region around Poyang Lake, and then built a composite system of "Urbanization-Water quality" and established an early warning indicator system combining the AHP. Based on the sustainable development theory and the coordination degree of co-system model, we made an early waring research on the16counties in the region around Poyang Lake.Here are the main results:(1) The level of urbanization varies in different areas of the region around Poyang Lake, and the process of urbanization fluctuates, but the whole trend is upward. The rate of urbanization in the core area is highest, the fringe area is the second, and the rate in the peripheral area is lower.(2) With the rapid urbanization, although the water quality of the main five rivers in the region is good, the water in Poyang Lake is polluted slightly. And the overall distribution trend is that the water quality deteriorates gradually from outside to inside.(3) Although the subsystem order degrees show, from2007to2014, the general developing trend of urbanization system and water quality system in study area is all favorable, the coordination degrees between the urbanization system and the water quality system change greatly. Generally speaking, the coordination degrees are low. And the water quality system is the main restrictive factor.(4) The early warning results show, from 2008to2014. the proportion of the yellow and red early warning state in the study area is respectively62.5%、50%、43.8%、37.5%、25%、25%、25%. So, on the whole, since2008, the system state has been improved which means the water quality in urbanization has been changing for the better.