Analysis Of The Effects Of Meteorological Factors On Public Health In Lanzhou

Objective:To understand the interannual variability of meteorological factors of Lanzhou, and to analyze the effects of meteorological factors on the daily hospitalizations for respiratory and cardiovascular system diseases, then to build a mathematical model determining the relation of exposure and response, thus to provide a scientific basis for disease prevention and control.Methods:Pearson correlation analysis was conducted using the records of meteorology and diseases by use of SPSS13.0. Then, on the basis of disruptive factors including control time, day of the week and contaminants, GAM time series model was employed to analyze the effects of meteorological factors on the health of residents with various genders, ages and diseases.Results:(1) The interannual variability of meteorological factors, including air temperature (daily maximum, minimum and average), atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, dew point, visibility and wind speed, showed a inverted V-shape. Mean pressure and relative humidity reached maximum in autumn, and minimum in spring. While the others achieved maximum in spring and minimum in autumn. Daily maximum and average temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity and wind speed showed a yearly increasing trend, while daily minimum temperature, dew point and visibility showed a contrary trend.(2) Pearson correlation analysis indicated that respiratory diseases were signally related to air temperature, relative humidity, dew point and visibility with P<0.01, and visibility had the strongest related correlation with a correlation coefficient of-0.189. Meanwhile, cardiovascular system diseases were signally related to air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed with P<0.01, and wind speed was the most closely related with a correlation coefficient of0.316.(3) The effects of meteorological factors in Lanzhou on respiratory diseases and cardiovascular disease was mostly lagged. Compared the difference of RR of disease corresponding to various factors, we can found that women, children and the olds were more sensitive than the others (larger RR), and daily average temperature affected respiratory diseases (RR=1.182) and cardiovascular disease (RR=1.289) of women. Daily minimum temperature played the paramount role in determining respiratory diseases of children (RR=1.263), and daily maximum and average temperature had a greater effect on respiratory diseases (RR=1.155) and cardiovascular disease (RR=1.135) of olds. Conclusions:Meteorological factors of Lanzhou experienced significant cyclical changes, and had a delaying effect on respiratory and cardiovascular disease. RR based on GAM model could predict the incidence of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and provided the basis for the prevention and treatment of diseases.