Climate Change Analysis Of The Vulnerability Of Natural Ecosystems In Sichuan Province

Climate change has brought serious effects to natural ecosystems such as forests,grasslands, especially in a first-step and second-step transition regions of Sichuanprovince of China because of the diverse terrain and complicated climate, With Sichuanas its study area, this paper analyses the response to climate change tendency andvegetation coverage changes and study the regional differentiation of sensitivity,adaptability and vulnerability. The author also identifies and analyses the relativelyhigh vulnerability of ecosystems under climate change to provide the basis for thedevelopment of ecological and environmental protection and climate change strategy ofSichuan.At the help of Arcgis and by using statistics analysis and contrast analysis method,this paper studies the monthly meteorological data taking from238meteorologicalstations and NDVI data with the time resolution of10d. From1982to2006,this paperstudies the relationship between of climate factor and NDVI of changes situation,andthen according to IPCC of defines, uses NDVI as evaluation indicators, According toSichuan province vegetation type figure will Sichuan province natural ecologicalsystem divided grassland, and filling Plexus, and coniferous forest,6species type, to100mx100m of grid cells as evaluation unit, on climate changes Xia natural ecologicalsystem of sensitivity, and adaptability and vulnerable sexual for has evaluation, then inabove based Shang find has vulnerable sexual high of several regional, again combinedclimate and NDVI of changes relationship for focus analysis.Research found that：（1）from1982to2006,the changes of temperatures inSichuan Province does not consistent: except Kangding, a smaller regional outside, inWestern Sichuan plateau,annual temperature overall Shang rendered rise trend,especially to Shiqu, and ABA, and Ruoergai, and Hong Yuan and Derong area mostobvious, and year all months of temperature lifting trend also has differences, to December, and January, and February three months of temperature rise most obvious;Guangan, junlian and other places within the basin show a declining trend in Panxiregion and most of the valleys of the Jinsha, Yalong River, the dadu River basin Stripheating trends increased. Precipitation in the basin Interior and Northwest Sichuanplateau is clearly on a downward trend in most of the region, while the precipitation inWestern Sichuan plateau and others are on the rise；（2）NDVI change of differentmonths in most regions of Sichuan is made up of alternating temperature andprecipitation impact or the impact of common, year-round in some areas or in a fewmonths under the influence of climatic factors is significantly higher than the other;(3)The sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of regional natural eco-systems areconsistent: high sensitivity, low adaptation and vulnerability occurs in the same place asQueer mountain,Shaluli, Xuebaoding, Siguniang mountain, Gonggamountain,Chuanxi plateau and the transitional regions between Jinchuan,Danba andDaofu. Bad weather are experienced in those regions, climate change to be significantinternal ecosystem is with less stable and relatively high sensitivity. The potentialevapotranspiration rate in Dry Valleys like the Jinsha River, the Yalong River Valleyand Ruoergai marshes, the Red plains is on the upward trend. If this situation continues,the vulnerability will become graver. The most vulnerable places occurs in Shiqu,Genieshan, Gonggashan mountain, Qionglaishan mountain, Queershan mountain andMosika region. The regions above are also affected by climate change.