Load Forecasting And Application Analysis Of The Distributed CCHP System

Energy is the basis for national economic development, very long time, "energy-saving priority, scientific use of energy" will be the core of China’s energy development strategy issues. Increasingly scarce in today’s energy supply, to establish reliable, secure and stable energy supply security system, and rational use of energy, energy efficiency has become a concern of countries in the world.Distributed Energy Systems for its safe, reliable, energy efficient, environmentally friendly and so on, are the world wide attention. Distributed Energy Systems is a small-scale energy systems, small-capacity, modular, decentralized way to transfer the client arranged cold, heat, electricity. It is the direct provision of various forms of user-oriented energy supply system for small and medium terminals, which utilization patterns of energy cascade to achieve higher energy efficiency, lower energy costs, higher energy supply security and better environmental protection of the target. Distributed energy system in developing a new model of energy use, will play an important role.This paper using DeST (Designer’s Simulation Toolkit) software program called meteorological data generation, calculation of the Hohhot year hourly meteorological parameters. Using DeST software established models. And DeST software forecasted the required heating load is 7400kW, cooling load is 3900kW, including air conditioning load is 3000kW, ice load is 900kW, power load is 1800kW, living water heating load 600kW. According to the results, we estimates the two programs investment were 31.00 million yuan and 33.00 million yuan, running time respectively were 3555h and 4881h,annual natural gas consumption were 2,705,000 m3 and 3,891,000 m3,the annual natural gas savings of 877,000 m3 and 1,125,000 m3. The program 1 internal rate of return is 10.1%, investment recovery period is 8.84 years; Option 2 internal rate of return is 13.7%, payback period is 8.18 years. The two programs are both good for the concrete implementation of the project to provide a scientific basis and theoretical reference.