Research And Engineering Application For Load Forecasting And High-voltage Connection Models In Distributing Power Systems

Research and engineering application for saturated load forecasting and high-voltage connection models in distributing power systems have been made in the paper.First, research method of load forecasting for distribution network planning is summarized; and the advantages and disadvantages of these methods are also discussed. Based on the traditional load forecasting and general spatial load forecasting method, this paper proposes a saturated space load forecasting method to carry out the steps and processes of the entire distribution of network load forecasting. This method includes the macro and micro approaches, by analyzing the theoretical basis model and influencing factors of the method in detail,and then, using these two approaches to forecast the saturated load of the Honggutan New Area; next, using the methods of forward regression and reverse in order to acquire the results of load of the planning year.This paper studies a variety of high-voltage connection each mode, summed up the scope of each one, and gives the transition programs among those modes. By analysis of the condition of currently operating and target of Honggutan New District, three feasible plans can be given. The analysis of technical and economic are used to select an optimal plan, which can provide the useful suggestion to the region of the future planning.The accomplishment of this thesis based on the report of 《Nanchang Honggutan New district2013-2017grid planning and long-term outlook》, research carries out on both theory and practical application. According to the methods mentioned above and combined with status of the actual and future development of Honggutan New region, a detailed research and planning on saturated load forecasting and high-voltage connection mode are completed.