An Empirical Analysis Of Tour-based Bicycle Use

The activity-based approach regards travel as a demand derived from the demand for activity participation. This method solves the behavioral inadequacy problem of the traditional trip-based four-step model, and it has been widely used to explain individual’s travel behavior in developed countries. However, in China, little work has been done in this area. This paper is an exploration into bicycle mode choice decision based on activity analysis. An empirical analysis of activity-tour based bicycle use in Handan is presented.Firstly, the activity-based travel demand theory is introduced, including its generation and development, fundamental ideas, methodology and applications as well, providing a theoretical base for modeling activity-tour based bicycle use.Secondly, a descriptive statistic analysis of bicycle trip in Handan is given, including bicycle mode share, bicycle trip distance, bicycle trip purpose and bicycle trip schedule distribution, providing a qualitative base for modeling activity-tour based bicycle use.Thirdly, based on the first and second step, an empirical analysis of activity-tour based bicycle use in Handan is presented. A MNL model of individual, household, activity-tour variables on bicycle use is developed, with a special focus on activity-tour variables (i.e. main activity, complexity, tour start time and average distance). The overall fitness of the model is good and the estimation results show that activity-tour characteristics do exert significant effects on bicycle use, confirming the core idea that travel is a demand derived from the demand for activity participation. As for the effects of individual and household variables on bicycle use, some of them are consistent with existing studies while others are not. All these results reflect the unique features of bicycle use in Handan.Finally, possible bicycle use policies in Handan based on the estimation results are discussed.