Study Of Activity Based Approach Of Travel Demand Forecast Model

For congested urban traffic,ideal state traffic should at least meet the balance of supply and demand,however,to approach which is not easy.Reason that causes congestion isn’t necessarily insufficient number of infrastructure which is part of transportation system,maybe there are other else.Due to large-scale urban road construction’s impossible,traffic demand management is increasingly important in urban traffic planning.Travel demand forecasting as core of traffic planning,provide theory and techniques foundation for relevant decision-making.Recently,the most used method in travel demand forcasting is four-step method,and it can’t satisfy dealing with short-term,diversity and meticulous traffic problem in travel demand management.Activity based approach of travel demand forecasting enriched awareness and understanding of transport phenomena and laws, complement deficiency of four-step method,therefore,to study it can do good for improving future urban traffic.This paper presents ideas about combining traditional method and activity based approach based on analysis of various methods,and studies activity based approach of trip generation.To sum up, this paper includes the following aspects.Firstly, reviews and summarizes background,theoretical foundation and applicable scope of each method,comparative analyses their advantages and disadvantages,finanly selects activity based approach to study travel demand forecasting.Secondly,analyses related theory of activity and travel analysis,provides home as unit to study trip generation,analyses feature in home activity and travel with survey datas,establishes activity properties,household characteristics,trip characteristics as three factors in home activity and travel.Thirdly,based on disaggregate model and discrete choice model theoretical foundation,researches mechanism in activity and travel,comes up with MNL and NL model framework for trip generation, delimits characteristic variables, and uses multi-logistic in SPSS to calibrate and inspect MNL model.Lastly,gives parameter estimation and it’s application,and explains how to use trip generation forecasting model based on this model with aggregate method.Home unit covers complex influence between family members,then it can reduce errors,and unlike previous models only make household characteristics a model factor;divides again classification of home activity and travel chains,in order to better calibrate model,finally gets househould choice probability.Activity based approach of trip generation forcasting model explains the reason for different travelers select results,and also can incorporate policy variables,study has shown that activity based approach of trip generation forcasting has more powerful vitality than traditional method.