The Method Of Passenger Volumes Forecasting For The First Operated Urban Rail

Although the railway construction started late, but it has been developing rapidly nearly10years. In1969, Beijing operated its first subway line, after that Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan Nanjing, Shenzhen, Shenyang and other cities have opened the first subway line in their cities. As the number of the cities operating subway increasing, the difference between the passenger volumes forecasting and the actual passenger volumes became more obviously.The passenger volumes forecasting for the subway which is first operated in the city is very important to the operators, as it is the basement of operation mode, the market strategy, different citizens for social economic level, the culture, climate and travel habits and other factors have different sensitive degree of the time and the cost in the travel choice. In the passenger volumes forecasting, the relationship between the change of votes fares, headway and passenger’s fluctuation, can help the operators make reasonable and effective operation mode, so passenger volumes forecasting is important to operation management.Experts at home and abroad at present main study the passenger volumes forecasting for long term, with urban land planning, population size of city planning to target, and the assumptions of transportation coordination optimistic, have little research on the passenger volumes forecasting for short time, especially in the city only a railway operated. Because of only a railway operated, the attract range is limited, the attract intensity is low, people do not have any dependence on the railway. If the method for long time forecasting were using in the short time forecasting, there would be some error between forecasting and actual by estimating highly of railway competition ability in transportationIn this paper, the method of passenger volumes forecasting for fist operated railway is: to the railway of land use investigation, along personal trip survey and current situation bus survey data as the foundation, study travel behavior of persons in rail related field. With random utility theory, simulate the process of people making choice between the original transportation and railway by weighing the utility of them. Set models about passenger flow transferred from other transportation to railway, and compute the passenger flow of railway.Through passenger volumes forecasting for Chengdu metro1,comparing the passenger flow between the forecasting and the actual operation, prove that the method about the passenger volumes forecasting for the first operated railway is feasible.