The Risk Assessment And Consequences Forecasting Study Of LNG Carriers And Docks

With the change of energy structure and the enhancement of global consciousness of environmental protection, a kind of clean and economic energy——liquefied natural gas (LNG) acquires an increasingly important state in the energy system of the world. Due to the rapid development of our economy, the demand for natural gas grows. Our needs mainly rely on importing by LNG carriers which have high technology, high risk, high value-added features. By now, despite the rarely accidents in the LNG navigation history, it is necessary to adopt quantitative method for risk assessment and forecast the consequences, because of our late beginning and rare data on LNG leakage accident. The main work is as follows:(1)According to the LNG safety production theory, and after analyzing the LNG carriers and docks elements, the distance, the protection conditions, the atmospheric conditions, the LNG status are selected as evaluation indexes. Using comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method on Dalian LNG dock, specific management measures on the potential safety hazards are proposed to provide references for daily management.(2)Major spill accident consequences assessment. Based on the deep-going study of leakage and diffusion model, pool fire, VCE, BLEVE, the paper analyzes the result of LNG leaking casualty, and the range of casualty and property loss to provide references for managements and rescue works.(3)Develop a practical software for evaluating all kinds of accident consequences, it’s based on the MATLAB guide, which is simple and friendly, and it is interface easy-handle, users only input or select parameters, for completing the evaluation work.