Study On The Risk Assessment And Emergency Management Of SLOCS For Iron Ore Import Of China

Iron Ore is the initial material in the steel production, and becomes the important strategic resources in national economic development. Overall, total iron ore resources are relatively rich in China, but its grade is lower, and the mine distribution is uneven, the domestic iron ore resources have been unable to meet our current demand of steel production. So importing of a certain amount iron ore from the international market is the inevitable choice in China's growing steel production. According to statistics, China's iron ore imports increased from 69.97 million tons in 2000 to grow to 628 million tons in 2009, and the annual growth rate is 27.6%.As the main vector of iron ore trade, the importance of the iron ore sea lines of communication (SLOCs) is more evident, and its security has become the important factor of the stable and rapid development of social economy. Therefore, how to assessment of the iron ore SLOCs'risk scientifically, construct the emergency response mechanism, maintain the iron ore SLOCs security, become important issues concerned home and abroad.The thesis firstly analysis the status of the iron ore SLOCs, and based on the calendar year's shipping volume, forecasting the shipping volume of Austrialian-China SLOCs and Brazilian-China SLOCs using Combined Forecasting. The results show that by 2012 the amount of shipping volume in A-C SLOCs would be 4.8 million tons, and 225 million tons in B-C SLOCs. Then construct the SLOCs risk index system including 8 major factors, and evaluate it using double-factor assessment model in A-C SLOCs and B-C SLOCs. The results show that the import stability, port unloading capacity, the domestic carrier share are the important risk factors in A-C SLOCs, while weather and sea condition, port unloading capacity, the domestic carrier share are the important risk factors in B-C SLOCs. Finally, construct reasonable emergency response mechanism of the iron ore SLOCs, including emergency organization system, emergency links, emergency information analysis and warning systems and disposal programs.