Characteristics Of Temporal And Spatial Variation Of Water Recourse In The Yellow River Delta Under Conditions Of Climate Change

As an important component of the nature environment, climate is vital to human survival. Every change of the climate can make an effect on nature eco-system and socialeconomy.According to the Fourth Assessment report’s conclusions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Global wanning has become an indisputable fact that. Global climate change will inevitably cause changes in the global hydrological cycle, resulting in the re-allocation of water resources in spatial and temporal and cause changes in the amount of water resources, which further affect the Earth’s ecological environment and the economic development of human society. Yellow River Delta is located in the Yellow River estuary, The water resources of the Yellow River Delta is inadequate and uneven distribution, so it is difficult to exploit and utilize. Especially in the context of global climate change, the lack of water resources and spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the Yellow River Delta become more serious.Use the linear and nonlinear statistical analysis methods, hydrology model and other means, combine with foreign water and rainwater runoff, and analysis water temporal and spatial variations in the Yellow River Delta under conditions of climate change (A2high emission, A1B emissions, B1low emission). Therefore, this article research and reasonably mixes as well as aspects and so on society, economy and environment sustainable development to the Yellow River Delta water resources development use has the vitals significance. the paper primary conclusions is as follows:(1) Through Analyzing the Yellow River Delta and lijin Hydrometric Station passes40years actual material, we can know the annual mean temperature to assume the trend of escalation, but the yearly precipitation, the yearly reference evapotranspiration and the yearly runoff of the lijin station showed a downward trend. And the runoff decreased significantly, reached12.55billion m3/10a.(2) Through establish the hydrology model and select the appropriate climate models, to analysis foreign water temporal and spatial variations in the Yellow River Delta under conditions of climate change. Lijin station in2002-2050, the yearly runoff in the CSIRO climate model scenario A2is the largest, followed by B1, A1B. Trends in the three emission scenarios is different, which A2showed a weak growth trend, A1B, and B1showed a decreasing trend.(3) Establish the local precipitation-runoff relationship in the Yellow River Delta, use downscaling method to estimate precipitation data in the future in the Yellow River Delta. Analysis rainwater runoff temporal and spatial variations in the Yellow River Delta under conditions of climate change. In2011-2050, the rainwater runoff in the ECHAM5climate model scenario B1is the largest, followed by A1B, A2. All the three emission scenarios showed decreasing trend, A2showed the most obvious trend, followed by A1B, B1.