Study Of The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources In Shanxi Province

At the present,the world is challenged seriously by three major problems which are the population expansion, the resource shortage, environment worsens and which has the close relationship with the water resources. The question of water resources shortage will be affecting the various countries' economy and the social development especially important in China which is densely populated and congenital condition of water resources not superior. Shanxi Province is one of global climatic change reflection sensitive ecology frail belts, simultaneously the water resources question has become restricts one of its economical development important attributes.Therefore, this article research and reasonably mixes as well as aspects and so on society, economy and environment sustainable development to the Shanxi Province water resources development use has the vital significance.The main purpose of this paper research is analyzes Shanxi Province's climatic change using the climate scene material, established the physical foundation distributional hydrology model according to the actual characteristic of study region , using which studies the region water resources change and the trend .the paper primary coverage is as follows:(1) Through Analyzing Shanxi Province passes 40 years actual material, we can know the annual mean temperature to assume the trend of escalation and the yearly precipitation change is obscure year by year , the natural amounts of runoff is reduction by every year 1.6% speed from 1960 to 2000 compare with 40 year average levels. Among the climatic change influence, the rainfall change causes the runoff average to reduce 0.54% every year by the rainfall change and and certain contribution by the temperature average elevates 0.05% every year.(2) Using the 7 models which are rated quite good of GCMs, promotes the temperature and the precipitation with the space and time interpolation to Datong, Taiyuan, Yuncheng station, and then compares with the historical material, discovered no one patterns obviously hasn't superior to the others, so this article uses the mean value of seven kinds of patterns results to describe the future climate.(3) Using the rainfall downscaling strengthened "by when calculates accumulates the method again" to the date material compatibility and the date model partial parameter physics significance.(4) Establishes the distributed hydrology date model in view of study region's characteristic which be made of ultra infiltrates produces flows and the uniform flux when the long-base method afflux. At model rating stage obtains 78% qualified rat by simulating 50 control stations using the model in study region. At last ,the paper forecast the tendency of water resource in future 50 yeas.