| Shandong Yellow River section in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is is a typical "hangingriver".Affected by the continental monsoon climate,it is prone to spring flood, summer flood, autumnfloods and ice flood during March-April, June, August, September-November, December to nextFebruary,it has a serious impact on economic development and the production and living of the people onthe Yellow River segment. In this paper,we select ten indexs in years of flood season,use AnalyticHierarchy Process and judgment matrix to determine the weight of each index,Build disaster riskassessment model of the Shandong Yellow River section and evalue the level of flood risk in the study areawith the help of GIS spatial analysis function,at last,we get the map and level diagram of the study area.Shandong Yellow River section of the flood disaster risk index values between0.01-0.64, mean0.193, standard deviation of0.093. The risk index closer to1,greater the likelihood of occurrence of flooddisasters,on the contrary,it is small.According to the risk index of mean and standard deviation,we dividedit into five levels,it is low-risk areas, lower-risk areas, medium-risk areas, high-risk areas and high riskareas.Form the flood disaster risk rating chart,we know low-risk areas accounted for11%, lower-risk areasaccounted for47%, medium risk areas accounted for31%,7%higher risk areas, high-risk areas4%.High-risk is in the central region of Shangdong,Lower and the lowest regional distribution insouthwestern Shandong and Shandong northwest plains.We use GIS in statistical analysis to calculate theaverage of the study area,for different parts of the regional characteristics,combined different levels of riskareas with risk management strategies,finally,we put forward the recommendations of the flood control andurban development planning in the corresponding area,so as to achieve the flood control from the local to the whole, from nature to human control, and promote the study area’s economic and social sustainabledevelopment.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:①There are three places whose high risk districts’ area percentage is over50%,they are Huan taiCounty,Ji nan and Ji ning.The places whose high risk districts’ area percentage is between0to20%are:Boxing county,hanghe county,Zouping county,Zhangqiu,Qihe county,Zibo,Changqing county,Taian,Feicheng,Wenshang county,Yanzhou,Jiaxiang county,Zoucheng,Weishan county and Yutai county.The degreeof vulnerability of social and economical of these places are highest,These places have plenty ofrainfall,and close to the main river(The Yellow river and Grand Canal) and lake(Nansi Lake),the flat terrainis likely to accumulated water,the mountain torrents is likely to occur in the high gradient places.Thesehave a big influence, and the synthesized risking degree is high when added toghter.②The places whose higher risk districts’ area percentage is over50%are Dezhou,Zibo,Taian,Feicheng,Qufu,Yanzhou,whose same percentage is under50%are:Huantai county,Ling county,Boxing county,Guangrao county,Gaoqing county,Yucheng,Zouping county,Qihe county,Changqing county,Lai wu,Pingyincounty,Dongping county,Xintai county.③The places whose medium risk districts’ area percentage is over50%are:Yutai county,Dingtaocounty,Zoucheng,Jiaxiang county,Juancheng county,Wenshang county,Ningyang county, Liangshan county,Xintai county, Dongping county, Donge county,Changqing county, Liaocheng, Qihe county, Zhangqiu,Zouping county, Yucheng and Linyi county.④The places whose lower risk districts’ area percentage is over50%are:Dongying district,Qingyuncounty,LeLing,Ningjin county,Yangxin county,Ling county,Binzhou,Huimin county,Jiyang county,Boxingcounty,Wucheng county,Pingyuan county,Guangrao county,Gaoqing county,Shanghe county,Xiajin county, Gaotang county,Linqing,Renping county,Guan county,Laiwu,Shen county,Pingyin county,Guyang county,Yuncheng county,Sishui county,Juye county,Dongming county,Weishan county,Jinxiang county, Chengwucounty, Cao county,Shan county.⑤The places whose low risk districts’ area percentage is over50%are:Wudi county,Zhanhua county,Lijin county,Kenli county,Hekou district,Yiyuan county.Compared the results of this paper with the reality,they are approximately the same.So this paper haveits practical value,it can offer the decision and measure basis for the related department.This paper confirm the importance of the new thinking of water control to prevent flood,Along withthe strengthen of the structural measures,to vigorously implement the nonstructural measures,and givesome suggests about the nonstructural measures according to the results of risk assessment.The high andhigher risk districts need to complete the forecast of rain condition system,the medium risk districts need towiden,heighten and consolidate the flood control works,and replanning the the flood discharge system ofthe city,to make it more accommodate with the development of the modern city.Well to the low and lowerrisk districts, the landscape ecological construction need to be strengthened.Because of the limit of time and ability and the difficulty to abtain the data,this paper is notcomprehensive in the index choose of danger and vulnerability,and fail to consider the effect of hydrology,sediment and flood control system.And these will be the work and the key investigation for the future. |