Risk Assessment And Disaster Assessment Of Ice Flood Based On Catastrophe Theory

The Inner Mongolia River reach of the Yellow River is affected by factors such as special geographical location.It is very prone to ice dams in the flood season,causing ice flood disasters,and the threat to the safety and economic development of coastal residents cannot be underestimated.Although the relevant departments have built various types of hydraulic structures such as hydropower stations with anti-flooding dispatching functions in the river section in recent years,the situation has eased.However,due to the country's economic and population growth,the unit area of the risk zone is still suffering.It can be seen that under the changing environment,the engineering method alone cannot completely eliminate the ambiguity.It is necessary to pay attention to non-engineering measures at the same time,and comprehensively regulate the relationship between humans and ice and water,in order to complete the task of preventing ice torrent flood disasters in the new era.The ice flood disaster system is a complex system affected by multiple control factors.Its occurrence and development have some typical characteristics,such as:mutation,irreversibility,non-predictability,suddenness,etc.These characteristics are traditional Newton.What mechanics can't explain.The theory of catastrophe is a method for describing the qualitative change from continuous quantity to sudden jump.It is paid more and more attention in the process of analyzing and exploring the catastrophic system.Therefore,this paper analyzes the characteristics of flood disasters in the Yellow River,and conducts a pre-disaster risk assessment and post-disaster loss assessment based on the catastrophe theory,in order to provide a reliable scientific basis for the risk assessment of the disasters.In the study,based on the historical data such as the historical temperature,flow,and ice conditions of the upper reaches of the Wanjiazhai River in the Yellow River from 1998 to 2016,based on the theory of system theory and disaster science,the Yellow River hurricane disaster system was established to affect the glacial flood.The subsystems such as the disaster-causing environment,the hazard factor and the disaster-bearing body were analyzed.Secondly,by analyzing the risk characteristics of the disaster,the four reference areas were selected based on the geographical characteristics of the river,and the risk assessment system of the ice-storm disaster model was established.The evaluation method completed the pre-disaster risk assessment of the icy flood disaster.Finally,the icy flood disaster occurred in four different regions of the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River is a typical case.Through analysis of its social impact,economic loss,environmental damage,etc.,the ice loss after flood disaster assessment is realized.Combined with the mutation evaluation method,the calculation is fast,scientific and objective,and can be applied to the extent to a certain extent.The ice hazard flood disaster risk assessment and post-disaster loss assessment research is of great significance for providing scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation work and for formulating guiding plans.