Research On The Probabilistic Locational Marginal Price Based On Point Estimate Method

In recent years, power system market-oriented reforms has become the inevitable trend worldwide, electricity market has the advantage that the traditional monopoly industry can not substitute. Market price is the core problem of electricity market, so a reasonable pricing mechanism is important. The calculation of Locational Marginal Price in traditional electricity market was based on the deterministic optimal power flow. But when it comes to the new situation, the random factors of power system has increased greatly, such as power generation competition, introduction of new energy, the increasingly complexity load and so on. In the new situation, if we use the previous deterministic method, the result can not reflect the uncertainty influencing on the Locational Marginal Price, neither accurate.In order to cope with this problem, the paper first proposed an probability optimal power flow model for Locational Marginal Price, taken into account the stochastic characteristic comprehensively, including load, generator bid, generator outage, wind farm, built the system stochastic model, based on Point Estimate Method, obtained the probabilistic Locational Marginal Price which could provide wealth information for market participants. In addition, the paper analyzed the error and characteristic of Point Estimate Method, then IEEE-30and IEEE-118system were calculated to verify the simple and efficient features of Point Estimate Method. Last but not least, three Point Estimate Method had general applicability.