Bus Load Characteristics Analysis And Forecast System Application Of Shanxi Power Grid

Load forecasting for electric power system relates to the power scheduling, production planning, dispatching, marketing and other professional work, so it is significant to raise the ability to ensure safe operation of power grid and power supply quality. With the safe operation of power system facing more and more challenge, how to improve the load forecasting ability and scheduling lean management level is a big problem to be solved.Though depth study of the basic principles of load forecasting and the characteristics and composition of the bus load forecasting, based on many load forecasting methods, it elaborates the adaptive load forecasting and pattern recognition mechanism. Secondly, we have a detailed analysis of the Shanxi Power Grid load characteristics, including the annual load characteristics of Shanxi Province, the characteristics of the daily load of Shanxi power grid load, and reach the2012Shanxi load forecasting results. Lastly, we explore the draw of2012Shanxi balance of power grids, including the principle of balance, a balanced outcome, and network power distribution and partition balance overview.Based on Shanxi Power Grid bus load characteristics and pattern recognition of the bus load, this paper puts forward that the bias correction algorithm for the prediction library consisting of a variety of load forecasting method and to consider all relevant factors as the core, the development of computer-based network communications, information processing technology and safety management model grid bus load forecasting system, Shanxi Province, the regional power grid bus load forecasting system performance, including the system’s hardware and system software. Also, it sets out in Shanxi Power Grid bus load forecasting system index calculation method and the overall discussion.Through instance analysis validation of Yang Jiabao substation and Yeyu substation, we draw a conclusion that Shanxi Power Grid bus load forecasting system, which can improve the prediction accuracy of the bus load and convergence speed, generalization, the global search ability, can better overcome the defects of traditional methods and artificial intelligence methods. At the same time, the system software implementation effect analysis shows that the implementation of this software has a good effect. So we can infer that the system software can provide security check of the Shanxi Power Grid, as well as contact demonstration project run in North China-Central China Power Grid scheduling before the indispensable basis of data for a deeper level of scheduling lean management work to create the conditions to ensure the Shanxi power grid operation with security, stability, high quality, economic energy saving and environmental protection operation has important practical significance.