Applied Research On Grey Association-prediction Theory Of Tourism Airport Passenger Throughput Forecast

During the past years, with the continuous economic development and increasingly improving living standards, the number of people travelling by air has a rapid growth. Driven by the demand of air travel of tourists, the tourism airports have been built at the surrounding of some well-known scenics. Tourism airports are generally new or converted airports. We cannot get the sufficient historical data from these tourism airports of low grade, which resulted in the difficulty of its throughput forecast. However, the accurate prediction of the passenger throughput is important as to full use of airport resources and effective allocation. At present, the study of tourism airport passenger throughput focuses on the qualitative analysis, while its error is large. This paper attempts to find an accurate method of quantitative prediction of tourism airport passenger throughput on the basis of past airport literature. The study found that the applicable conditions of gray association-prediction are just dovetail with the characteristics of the tourism airport. This paper specially selects Jiuzhaigou Huanglong Airport as a typical tourism airport to verify the applicability of the gray association-prediction model in the passenger throughput forecast of tourism airport. At first, we analyze and find fourteen actual factors associated with the passenger throughput of Jiuzhaigou Airport, and sort out the main factors by means of the gray association analysis. Furthermore, according to the actual throughput and its main factors, we use four basic gray association-prediction models to make fitting analysis. The results of accuracy of fitting prediction are optimal by establishing weakening operator GM(1,1) model. Finally, we get the result that the passenger throughput of Jiuzhaigou Airport growth rate is declining by using the optimal model to predict the passenger throughput in the future five years. This result is fully rationalized when we analyze it combined with the actual situation in Jiuzhaigou Airport. The verification results show that the gray association-prediction model has a high precision, and can be used for tourism airport passenger throughput forecast.