Research On The Prediction Of Container Throughput Of Qingdao Port Based On Grey Model

In recent years,with the implementation of the strategy of building a strong maritime country,the shipping industry has been able to regain its vitality with the development of the new maritime Silk Road.Throughput is an important technical index of container logistics.No matter which port is trying to manage and predict its throughput in a more scientific way.today,container logistics has almost occupied the leading position in the whole shipping logistics,and the research on throughput is more and more important.As one of the important ports in northern China.Qingdao port has many advantages The unique advantages of this area are very important in the "one belt and one way",and have become a major force in the container shipping system in the north of China.At present,the prediction method of container throughput of Qingdao port is still to be optimized,and a model to predict its development trend is needed.This study first describes the reported theory and method for port container throughput prediction,and summarizes the research status in this field at home and abroad.Then,the paper expounds the prediction characteristics and application conditions of the grey model,analyzes the distribution law of the container throughput data of Qingdao port in the past years,and constructs the grey GM(1,1)prediction model to predict the container throughput of Qingdao port every year.At the same time of building the prediction model by using the container throughput data of Qingdao port from 2010 to 2016,the residual GM(1,1)model is established to modify the prediction accuracy of the original model,so as to obtain higher prediction accuracy.Using the historical data from 2017 to 2018 and comparing with the predicted value,the prediction accuracy of the model is greater than 95%.Finally,the model is used to predict the container throughput of Qingdao port from 2019 to 2023.and it is calculated that the container throughput of Qingdao port will maintain a rapid and stable growth trend from 2019 to 2023,which will break through 20 million TEU in 2019.and reach 25 million TEU in 2023.In addition,local government supports,improves services.information technology and talent introduction Optimization and integration suggestions.The research on the prediction of container throughput of Qingdao port will help the development of port planning and construction and adjustment of port production.