Prediction Of Industrial Water Demand In Qingdao City

Industry is an important section of the national economy, the magnitude ofthe industrial water demand directly related to the establishment of the citylayout. Therefore, the forecasting for industrial water demand is one ofimportant contents in water resource planning and management in China’s economicand social development at present. The water quantity per capita possession is182.4cubic meter of Qingdao in2010, far below the internationally recognized1700cubic meter of water resources, meanwhile, there are a series of problemssuch as ground water levels fall, water pollution, seawater intrusion, and theis one of the cities with most serious shortage of water in the country. Withthe increase population and rapid development of industry in Qingdao city, urbanwater supply water and industrial water resource is inadequate. The industrialwater demand forecasting is an extremely important part for both the design ofwater supply system and running research. It is of great significance to confirmthe reasonable quantity of industrial water demand for realizing the sustainableuse of water resources and development of economy and society. This paper focuseson a systemic research on the issue of forecasting industrial water demand inQingdao city, Shandong Province.The content includes the following parts:(1) This article makes a more comprehensive overview, at first, about theindustrial water demand study of domestic and foreign and describes the purpose,meaning, content, method of the study, and then introduce the methodology ofthis paper.(2) It describes the location, resources, and socio-economic profiles ofQingdao, analyzes the developing and using status and point out the problems.(3) In the third chapter, it gives a literature of research on industrialwater demand all over the world: describes the characteristics and the problemsof current forecasting methods, and constructs a comprehensive index system forprediction of industrial water demand in Qingdao. (4) In the fourth chapter, this paper builds a forecasting model of industrywater demand based on stepwise regression approach, and then chooses an optimalforecasting model to forecast water demand by using multi-form curves, and getthe forecasting value in different years planned: there are302,387and675million cubic meter industrial water respectively for2015,2020and2030. Italso puts forward the integrated water resources planning of Qingdao.(5) Based on the above-mentioned analysis and forecasting, some conclusionsand suggestions are presented.