Study On The Prediction Methods In Future Water Demand Of Taiyuan City

Water resource refers to the fresh water, the surface water and the groundwater that can update continuously and are closely related to human society and ecological environmental protection, and its source of supply is mainly the atmospheric precipitation. Originally, Taiyuan is a water shortage region, and in recent years, the quantity has fallen sharply. After entering the 21st century, water shortage has become the main problem of economic development in Taiyuan because of the rapid development of the social economy and the accelerated process of urbanization which lead to the constantly growing demand for water. Therefore, we develop the research of future water demand prediction in Taiyuan.This research mainly consists of two parts. One is the investigation and the analysis of present status of exploitation and utilization of wafer resources .The other is the predictive study of the water demand in Taiyuan , which refer to the following two parts: predict the prospect of the population growth using the extrapolation method which can be used to describe the scale of the future population of Taiyuan; predict the demand of domestic water, the industrial water and the agricultural water in different ways according to the actual situation of Taiyuan in different years and compare the predictive results, then choose one that can better reflect the development trend of water use in Taiyuan. This trend can accomplish the rational exploitation of water resource on the basis of reasonable use of water.(1)The followings are the major conclusions of our research: Predicting the demand of water is one of the important contents of water resource management. In the passage, we comment on and analyze several methods of the water prediction, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method as well as their applicability。(2)We use the method of trend extrapolation to predict the future population of Taiyuan, to describe rational scale of Taiyuan's population development, to predict the population of Taiyuan which will be 3.86 million, 4.34million and4.81million in the year of 2010, 2020 and 2030 respectively.(3)Combining with the actual using of water, we use traditional methods, grey method prediction, BP neural network forecasting method to predict the various types of water using in Taiyuan city. Then we select the best forecasting method-- the BP neural network prediction method, that can be most widely used, and has high accuracy, and good results, to forecast the water demand in all departments of Taiyuan Planning Years in the year of 2010,2020, 2030 respectively. (4)Using the BP neural network prediction method, we have predicted the total water demand of Taiyuan in the year of 2010, 2020 and 2030 respectively : 615.73million m3 ,712.05 million m3 and 817.93 million m3. The date shows that the water demand has a trend of increasing, while the growth margin is not very high. It indicates that the total water demand of Taiyuan will not be grown too much in the coming decades.The most innovative aspect of this research is to use the BP nerve network prediction method to forecast the operating year's water consumption of Taiyuan.It needs to be explained that how to enrich the standards and basis of the water consumption is the main direction for the next research step.