Study On Flood Forecast Of Shangyou Reservoir With Considering The Influence Of Small And Medium Reservoirs Upstream

With the development of social and economy, people built a lot of waterconservancy project in the basin to ease the problems such as the scarcity of waterresources.It changes the underlying conditions and the runoff characteristic of river basin.These changes make the traditional forecasting model difficult to meet the requirementsof the forecast accuracy.Therefore, to study the influence of the small and medium-sizedreservoirs to the flood forecast model of the river basin is of great significance both inmaking full use of water resources and controling flood scientifically and effectively.Based on the design and development of the flood forecasting and optimizationscheduling of Shangyou reservoir, this paper analysis the influence of the current smalland medium-sized reservoirs upstream the river to the flood forecast of Shangyoureservoir. And then we study and built Xin ’anjiang_virtual reservoir model and BPnetwork model for flood forecasting, with considering the impact of small andmedium-sized reservoirs upstream. The prediction effect is good and meet the nationalindustry standard requirements in forecasting and simulating the flood process that hasalready happened.A multi-objective flood optimal scheduling model has been built based on the floodforecasting model established above. According to the actual requirements of theShangyou reservoir, flood forecasting and optimal scheduling system of ShangyouReservoir has been designed and accomplished.