Study On Flood Control Forecast Operation With Considering The Influence Of Sub-middle Sized Reservoirs

Flood forecast and reservoir flood control operation is an important non-engineering measures in flood control, they paly an important role in flood rescue and generate the service industry and agriculture, and to the national economy they have a huge economic benefits.But for the past few years, with the accelerated process of modernization, particularly the sub-middle sized reservoirs for the purpose of flood control and irrigation and so on have a significant influence on formation of watershed runoff, changed the original basin runoff routing theory, then brings new challenges to the flood forecasting. At the same time, many of the reservoirs’operation still use the conventional method and which is difficult to generate real-time scheduling optimal solution for reservoir in short time. In consideration of this issue, this article quantitatively estimates the impoundment of small and medium-sized reservoirs based on the background of Menlou Reservoir and combined with the antecedent precipitation, evaporation, control area of sub-middle sized reservoirs, beneficial reservoir capacity and other data, and using the method of classification and improvement of the parameters of DHF model to build the improved DHF model, taking the varied influence on flood routing of small and medium-sized reservoirs by differences of antecedent soil moisture, distribution of rainfall and the cumulative rainfall. Application results show that the improved DFH model can effectively improves the prediction precision and qualified rate, This papper also has studied the rapid generation of scheduling scheme for Menlou reservoir flood control which based on multi-target decomposition, heuristic information, PSO and fuzzy optimization,this can provide some guidance for real-time scheduling program generation of Menlou reservoir.In the paper, the research contents and achievements are as follows:(1) Through the analysis of watershed characteristics and original project of flood runoff and conflunce forecasting, state that the influence of small and medium-sized reservoirs on flood process, and demonstrates the necessity to re-prepare prediction scheme in consideration of the small and medium-sized reservoirs influence on Menlou Reservoir.In re-preparing, combined with small and medium-sized reservoirs data, antecedent soil moisture, distribution of rainfall and effective accumulative rainfall to propose the method in consideration of the regulation and storage function of small and medium-sized reservoirs, using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to calibrate parameters, and apply the improved DHF model to simulate the floods. The new scheme has improved the prediction accuracy and the results are more reliable compared with the original scheme.(2) According to current flood control operation situation, the flood control operation of Menlou reservoir was studied combined with multi-target decomposition, heuristic information, PSO and fuzzy optimization. Using the flood which the Waijia river occurred a large flood and the protection downstream occurred river overflow, conduct Menlou reservoir to generate real-time scheduling program.(3) In order to promote the standardized management of reservoir basin forecast scheduling and improve the level of reservoir flood control decision, the Menlou Reservoir flood control decision support system was build based on B/S+C/S mode.