Research On Dynamic Analysis Method Of The Road Network Traffic State Reliability Based On Real Time Data

With the development of social economy level and the people’s living standard,urban internal traffic and vehicle ownership increased rapidly, lead to traffic problemis increasing serious. Traffic congestion, traffic accidents and the environmentalpollution constraint the development of economy and society, especially thecongestion problem, has become an important factor to affect normal function andsustainable development of city, is one of the pressing problems to solve。Advanced traffic management system (ATMS) as an important part of ITS, tocontrol and manage the traffic state, is the effective method to ease traffic congestionand improve road network efficiency. Road network reliability dynamic analysis is thepowerful tool to reflect the traffic condition random variation, to help traffic managerto dynamic monitoring traffic status, so as to provide dynamic decision support fortraffic manager, formulate reasonable traffic management measures, and reach thegoal of effective management of the traffic.Based on present research situation, to study the traffic state dynamic analysis ofroad network reliability, including the following aspects of content:1) Research on road network traffic state reliability index system and measuremethod of dynamic analysis.Combined with the characteristics of road traffic system, puts forward the relatedconcepts and indicators that applicable to road network traffic state dynamicreliability analysis, and from anti-destroying ability of networks, networksurvivability and the effectiveness of the network reliability measure aspects,supplement the existing state of road network reliability index of dynamic analysis forcomplement, constructs the index system of road network traffic state dynamicreliability analysis.2) Study on road network traffic state dynamic reliability analysis method basedon Bayesian network.Road network traffic state analysis based on shortest path set method need for time consuming minimization algorithm processing when the reliability index calculation,in the sensitive screening of roads and intersections, the important concept in solvingthe system of reliability index and cell parameter analytic expression and the partialderivatives of more complex, and the concept of importance can only explain thechange degree which component change tiny probability lead to system changeprobability,when determining the network vulnerability is not enough to onlyconsider this aspect. In order to make up for these problems, this paper establishes theBayesian network model of road network traffic reliability dynamic analysis, throughthe inference mechanism of Bayesian networks model, calculating the reliability ofroad network traffic state index, find out weak link network, provide the basis forscreening of sensitive sections and intersections.3) Research on sensitive road sections and intersections based on ABCclassification screening methodThe role of Road network consists of roads and intersections is different, havedifferent contribution to the road network reliability, the reliability of some units havegreatly influence on the changes of road network reliability, and other units of thechange of the reliability of road network reliability. In terms of impact on overallnetwork traffic, roads and intersections of road network with the characteristics of“Key in the minority, Secondary majority ". Therefore, in this paper, the sensitivedefining the road section and intersection, use multi-criteria ABC classificationclassifying network of roads and intersections, screened sensitive sections andintersections, traffic manager reasonable allocation of resources, in order to improvethe efficiency of management, guarantee the road network transport system runningsmoothly.