Bus Vehicle Choice Prediction On Common Limes With Real-Time Information At Stops

Nowadays bus dispatching lacks of the consideration of passenger’response to dispatching operation. That leads to compromise to the high-efficiency of real-time bus dispatching. Actually, when real-time transit information is provided at stops, passengers’bus vehicle boarding choices may change according to the information, especially on common lines. As a result, previous bus dispatching theory may not really work for remedying irregular service. Thus, research on passenger choice behavior on common lines under the real-time public transportation information is very important.This paper summarizes the research on traveler behavior problems and bus passenger behavior problems firstly. Then problem of transit route choice on common lines is introduced. A could model based prediction model is proposed for transit route choice prediction. In order to validate the proposed model, the data of two collinear bus lines in Dalian is tested as a case study. Results show that real-time transit information can lead passenger transferring among the common lines, which must be considered in bus dispatching. Moreover, he precision of proposed model can be accepted. The study in this paper achieves an extension to passenger behavior theory.