Simulation Of The Impact Of Climate Change On Rice Production In Ningxia

According to the statement of the fourth assessment report of IPCC:surface temperature of earth has risen by0.56℃-0.92℃on average, while that of China comes to0.5℃-0.8℃. It mainly affects agriculture, natural ecosystems, and coastal zone, etc. Rice is one of the main foods in China, and China is the origin and the biggest producer of rice. Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, as the top production area of high quality and quantity, has a long history in rice-planting. This paper analyzes the influence of future climate change of Ningxia District on rice production. DSSAT is put into study to find the effective measures to release the negative effects by climate change. And the research is meaningful to guarantee the supply of food.This paper includes records of the climatological and agricultural data of the testing stations in Yinhuang Irrigation District of Ninxia, and the statistical analysis of the influence of meteorological factors on production and the variation characteristics of cold damage, then the integration of the output of PRECIS and the crop model CERES-Rice, finally the simulative assessment of the effects of climate change on the production and duration in Yinhuang Irrigation District. As stated above, it comes to the conclusion:(1)Relationship between production of rice and meteorological factors.Rice production is in proportion to the cumulative temperature both in jointing stage and grouting stage, and also the sunshine duration of jointing stage. On the contrary, rice production is in inverse proportion to the precipitation of grouting stage.The characteristics of cold damage-on the frequency and degree of damage, Zhongning, Zhongwei is on the top, the south to Yinchuan numbers the second, while the north suffers the lest. And as the time goes by, the temperature rises, but the frequency of cold damage drops.(2)Adaptability of the crop models. For instance, CERES-Rice operates well in modeling, during florescence and duration. And the standardization and verification of the data from Yongning, Zhongning and Taole indicates that the mold is qualified to the simulation application, for the consistency between analogue values and actual values.Adaptability of the climate patterns. After the contrastive analysis of the analogue and actual values of everyday’s maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar shortwave radiation of PRECIS under A2and B2, it can come to the conclusion that PRECIS is in good running of modeling, and the analogue value of the solar shortwave radiation are lower than the actual values on average.(3)Influence of climate change on rice. The rice production goes down in Ningxia, the trend of reduction of2050s is more apparent than that of2020s under the same condition, but the space change trend is similar.The extent and range of reduction of A2is wider than B2in the same period,but space change trend is different. Change of duration. Under the same condition, the duration of2020s shortens more than that of2050s. The duration of B2shortens more than A2in the same period.(4)Adaptability. The results of modeling show that rice production can be effectively upraised by earlier sowing and higher G4(heat-resistant coefficient)...