Simulated Study On Impacts Of Climate Change On The Potential Yields Of Rice

The crop models CERES-Rice, caliheated and validated, were linked with thetransient General Circulation Models (GCMs) of HadCM2 and ECHAM4 withdifferent CO2 emmission scenario by the stochashc weather gehorator to assess theimpacts of climate change on rice yields in their main growing ar.as in China. And inthe process of simulation, take the impacts of the insect pest into account. Theinteractive impacts on the potential yields of rice among water availability, CO2emmission scenarios and insect pest were analyzed.The sensitivity experiment of the CERIS-Rice model to temPeratUre, rainfall andCOz were firstly conducted, the controlled experiment were done to vetify tbe model,then the rainfed and irrigated rice under four climate change sceuarios, without andwith COz fertilization effects and insect p.st effects, were simulated respectively, theyields changes of rice in their main growing areas in China were identified, and theinteractive impacts on the pot'ntial yields of rice betWeen water availability and CO2emmission scenario were analyzed.The results show: in the futUre of 30-50 years, Without the CO2 fertilizahoneffects, Climate Change will reduce the rainfed and irrigated rice yield in mostscenarios and locations to different extent except KuMiug. With the CO2 fertilixationeffdcts. Climate Change will increase the irrigated rice yiled in most scenarios and1ocations, and increase the rainfed rice yield in some scenarios .nd locations, reducetheir yield in other scenarios and locations.