| Myrica Rubra is a famous product of China fruit, with good economic, social and ecological benefits. Zhejiang Province is a major producing area in China, which climate is more appropriate of Myrica Rubra cultivation. By2010, Myrica Rubra cultivation area of8.3×104hm2, production of4.5×105kg, the output value of$3.2billion. The mature period of Myrica Rubra is relatively concentrated, harvest time is short, fruit is not storable, which seriously affected the development of Myrica Rubra. To resolve this issue, on the one hand to develop Myrica Rubra cultivation, through the regulation of microclimate effects of the facility to change the maturity of Myrica Rubra, listed in Myrica Rubra staggered; on the other hand, harvesting, storing, processing and other preparations in advance in order to reduce the middle time from the production to the sales. In addition, the accurate prediction of microclimate in greenhouse and growth stage of Myrica Rubra should be taked, in order to further carry out overall planning and marketing decisions.Facilities Myrica Rubra growth period and microclimate observation experiment was taked in Xianju County and Wenzhou Chashan town of Zhejiang Province. Using meteorological data accumulation, this research analysed the effects of meteorological factors on the Myrica Rubra developmental and reproductive, established a forecast greenhouse microclimate and facilities Myrica Rubra phenology model. Based on the. NET platform using C#programming, constructed the facilities Myrica Rubra environmental management decision support system. Research results can provide support for environmental regulation and industry development of facilities Myrica Rubra, the main findings are as follows:(1)This experiment used bamboo wood shed for the special simple shed, which is convenient, economical and with good thermal insulation effect, suitable for mountain facilities Myrica Rubra cultivation. In2010, the entire observation period (January-June), the average temperature in greenhouses is3℃higher than outside. From January to April, the average daily temperatures is averaged3.4℃higher than outside, May-June, the average daily temperatures is averaged3.4℃higher than outside, temperature in greenhouses always higher than outdoor. In2011, the temperature difference between internal and external shed with similar in2010. In2010, from January to June, the average mean daily humidity in the greenhouse is92%, average daily humidity outside the greenhouse is76.9%, which have a average difference of15.1%, the highest difference of nearly50%. Humidity inside and outside the greenhouse in the late is very small, almost equal. In2011, the humidity difference between internal and external shed with similar in2010. In addition, the temperature and humidity in the greenhouse under different weather background changes have a significant difference.(2) The weight of single fruit, content of soluble solids, sugar, Vc and edible rate were increased by38.6%,11.1%,8.3%,56.6%,9.7%respectively, organic acid content decreased by11.5%, and production increased by17.7%every666.7square meters. Accumulated Photo-thermal effectiveness after fruit setting were good accord with logistic equation.(3) The path analysis showed that daily average temperature, diurnal temperature range and effective accumulated temperature above10℃were significantly correlated with soluble solids, content of sugar, Vc, organic acid and the weight of single fruit, which all through significance test by0.05; the highest, lowest temperature and daily average relative humidity were significantly correlated with soluble solids, Vc content and the weight of single fruit. Used stepwise regression analysis, we etablished a regression equation between the quality and environmental factors of myrica rubra.(4) The research uses the meteorological data collected inside and outside of Myica rubra greenhouse on Wenzhou in Zhejiang province from January to June in2010, and after analysis obtains the transformed coefficient between the maximum, minimum and hourly temperature under the different weather background, also constructs the inside temperature forecast model based on the BP neural network. Using the independent experimental data to verify the model, the results indicates that the RMSE between the model and the predicted minimum, maximum and hourly temperature are0.81℃,1.47℃and0.79℃respectively, the decision coefficient R2between the predicted and actual value based on1:1are0.97,0.97and0.98respectively, the precision is higher than the stepwise regression model obviously (RMSE, R2respectively are0.90℃,2.63℃,1.63℃and0.90,0.84,0.80).(5) Based on the effects of temperature and radiation condition on the growth and development of Myrica rubra, use the meteorological data and outdoor phonological observation data from2004to2008in Zhejiang Province, the meteorological data and development date of Myrica rubra in greenhouse, build a accumulated thermal and radioactive effect model to predict Myrica rubra development stages. The independent data from2009to2010were used to validate the model. The results show that the simulated results agree well with the observed ones. Based on the1:1line, the root mean squared error(RMSE) of Female inflorescence emergence, Female inflorescence flowering, Leaf extending, fruit-setting and Fruit ripening date were, respectively,2.51,1.83,2.68,2.70and2.45days. Compared with the growth degree days (GDD) base model (RMSE were8.02,7.81,5.46,5.40and11.83days respectively), and the integral PAR base model(RMSE were8.28,11.0,8.52,5.56,6.87days respectively), the prediction accuracy of the model in this study increased8.6%and10.2%, respectively.(6) Based on the. NET and SQL database platform support, using advanced programming languagesC#programming, this research constructed facilities Myrica Rubra decision support system in Zhejiang Province, which realized prediction of microclimate in greenhouse based on BP neural network and forecasting Myrica Rubra phenology based on effect of temperature and light, the climate map in Zhejiang Province was published simultaneously. This system provides decision support for facilities Myrica Rubra layouts and plant management. |
