Study On The Indicators System Construction, Quantization And Prediction For Carrying Capacity Of Livestock And Poultry

With the continual expansion in the production scale of livestock and poultry-farming industry, theproblem of environmental pollution caused by it was showing the trend of total increasing, degreeaggravating and range expanding. It had significant meanings to study on environmental carryingcapacity of livestock and poultry to program livestock and poultry-farming industry reasonable, also tocoordinate the relationships among livestock and poultry-farming industry, social economic and naturalresources.On the base of literature and classification, expert consultation and summary of the existingresearch results, the paper constructed the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultryindicators system, used analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and system dynamic(SD) to establish thequantization and prediction model system of environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry.Shandong-Binzhou was selected as the research object, then established the indicators system whichwas suitable for Binzhou by multicollinearity analysis, determined weight value of every indexes withAHP, and selected the extreme value method as the dimensionless method, then quantified theenvironmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry by the method of weighted sum.The predictionof the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry based on the results of the systemdynamic model. Finally, combining with the actual development situation of the natural resources,social economic and livestock and poultry-farming industry in Binzhou, put forward the measures andoptimization schemes for improving the regional environmental carrying capacity of livestock andpoultry. And the main results of this research were as follows:(1) Selected “natural resources supplying capacity-social conditions supporting capacity-pollutionbearing capacity” as the basic framework for environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultryindicators system.(2) From2001to2008, the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry in Binzhoushowed a significantly downtrend.(3) According to the results of the prediction from2008to2020, the environmental carryingcapacity of livestock and poultry in Binzhou decreased gradually, reduced to0.5233in2020.(4) The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that, they could cause the decline of theenvironmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry, including the increasing of population,industrial output value, industrial waste water emission per ten thousand yuan output, chemical fertilizerapplication, pesticide usage and culture amount, but GDP and farmland were the opposite.(5) The measures and programs were proposed to improve the environmental carrying capacity oflivestock and poultry based on the study, and different schemes were predicted. Finally, the reasonableoptimization scheme was proposed by comparing. The results could supply some references formanagement departments to make regional development planning and environmental management anddecision.