| This paper analyzed and concluded the Chinese rice three major diseases (riceblast, rice sheath blight, rice bacterial blight) happened popular condition, reasons andbiological characteristics, and based on plant disease economic theory, plant diseasepopular science and statistics forecasting theory, build time series forecasting models,trend forecasting model, auto-regressive and moving average model, grey predictionand combined forecasting model.the paper analized the main rice diseases fluctuationcycle and characteristics, to construct the rice disease rate time series predictionmodel.The significance, content, methods and procedure of this research was statedfirstly. and then the second chapter of this paper is literature review on relatedresearch so as far as I know. and reviewed the prevalence of condition,reason,controlcountermeasures in three main diseases.The chapter summarized the currentdocuments in using time series decomposition method to research the rice diseasepopular prediction, and generlized the relate research and result of chinese ricedisease popular prediction.The theoretical basis and method of main rice diseases epidemics predictionwere described in the third chapter. and described respectively the meaning of theEconomics of Plant Pathology,the purpose and content; expounded the meaning ofPlant Pathology Epidemiology, the theory, research content and research method;explained the meaning of economic forecasting, summed up the ideas and generalprinciples of economic forecasting;summarized the classification of economicforecasting.The reason for the popularity of the major diseases in Chinese rice was describedin the chaper4,and analized mainly disease pathogens and infecting。The chaptersummarized the reason of main rice diseases popular from rice resistant varieties,climate environment and field management and so on. and comprehensive combedcounter measures in prevention and control.The historical track was described about Chinese rice main diseases rate of riceblast,rice sheath blight and rice bacterial blight in the chapter5.and used with H-Pfiltering method decomposition to get the three kinds of disease rate volatility cyclecomposition.The chapter inductived and analized three kinds of disease in time andspace dynamic characteristics, and pointed out the state of the three diseases cycletrend.The sixth Chapter constructed trend forecasting model of three rice diseasesincidence, autoregressive moving average model, the gray prediction model andcombination forecasting model, and use the MAPE countdown method and the meansquare error of the reciprocal method in combination forecasting model to calculatethe prediction of2012disease incidence, and then three kinds of disease predictionresults were analized and discussed.The seventh Chapter according to three rice diseases qualitative analysis,quantitative analysis and the forecast results in building prediction model in the preceding chapters, and proposed suggestion to increase the level of rice diseaseepidemic forecasting of three rice diseases. one the hand, from the perspective of localgovernment, to formulate relevant policies and measures,and strengthen oversight,and improve the monitoring and forecasting system; on the other hand, from the ricegrowers point of view to put forward relevant measures in order to improve diseaseprevention and treatment. |
