Prediction Of Occurrence Regionalization Of Major Wheat Diseases And Pests In Xinjiang And Potential Suitable Areas Of Wheat Dwarf Bunt

The wheat major diseases and pests were impacted the quality and yield of wheat in Xinjiang.In recent years,the wheat major diseases and pests were becoming more and more severely,especially under the condition of the resistant ability loss.The study established a temperature interpolation model and explored the occurrence regions of wheat major diseases and pests in Xinjiang,which to provide an important basis for accurate prevention and control;Meanwhile,the study predicted the suitable regions of wheat dwarf bunt under current and future climatic conditions,aiming to provide theoretical basis for the quarantine and control of wheat dwarf bunt.The main results were as follows:1.The occurrence regionalization map of wheat diseases in Xinjiang was determined by the over-summering condition of Pst.and the occurrence condition of other diseases.The results showed that the over-summering regions of wheat stripe rust in Xinjiang had a wide distribution,covered an area of 71.96 million hm~2,accounted for 43.35%of the total area of Xinjiang.It mainly covers Altay,Tacheng,northwestern Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture,Yi Li Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture,southern Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,central Hami,southern Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture and northern 4 counties and cities,northern Aksu,southern Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture,southern Kashgar and southern Hotan.Besides,there was a correlation between the over-summering regions and the field disease conditions of wheat stripe rust,the correlation coefficient was 0.82.The results could be used as an important theoretical basis for the prediction and forecast of wheat stripe rust in Xinjiang.The occurrence regions of wheat powdery mildew distributed in:southern Urumqi,Altai,Tacheng,Bozhou,Ili,southern Changji,central Hami,southern and northern Bazhou near the mountains,northern Aksu,southern Kashgar and southwestern Kashgar,accounting for39.24%of Xinjiang area.The occurrence regions of wheat head blight distributed in:Fukang City,Changji Prefecture,Urumqi,Xinyuan County,Ili Prefecture,Luntai County,Bazhou Prefecture and Kuche County,Aksu Region,accounting for 0.99%of Xinjiang area.2.The suitable areas of wheat dwarf bunt in China were determined by the biological characteristics,epidemiological regular and meteorological data based on the software of CLIMEX and ArcGIS.The results showed that the range of the suitable areas of wheat dwarf bunt was widely distributed in China under the current climatic conditions,the high-risk suitable areas were mainly around the high-altitude areas centered in southeastern Qinghai and Sichuan;the medium-risk suitable areas were extended from Tibet to Shandong and Liaoning;the low-risk suitable areas were distributed in Xinjiang,northern Tibet,northern Qinghai,central Gansu,Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning and Yunnan,Guizhou,Chongqing,Hubei,Anhui,Jiangsu;According to the A1B(medium carbon emission)and A2(high carbon emission)climate models proposed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the suitable areas for wheat dwarf bunt in China were decreasing,the high,medium and low risk areas would change from 7.6%,20.2%and 46.5%in 2020 to 8.5%,13.6%,46.5%(under the A1B model)and8.6%,11.3%,46.7%(under the A2 model)in 2100,respectively.Under current and future climatic conditions,the suitable areas of wheat dwarf bunt in China were still widely distributed,and the risk of invasion and colonization was high.3.The results showed that the pests potential occurrence areas are widely distributed in the northern of Xinjiang,and the Schizaphis graminum and Petrobia latens occurred locally in the southern of Xinjiang.The percentage of potential occurrence area of Schizaphis graminum,Sitobion avenae,Petrobia latens,Pentfaleus major and Sitodiplosis mosellena was 31.99%,12.86%,56.97%,22.27%and 21.56%,respectively.Therefore,the prediction and forecast of potential occurrence area on wheat pests in Xinjiang,could be significant to recognize the occurrence and distribution of wheat pests,and provide the scientific prevention and control on wheat pests.