Study On Spatiotemporal Distributionand Environmental Risk Factors Of The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) In China

Since highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1(HPAI H5N1) began circulating in Hong Kong in1997, the virus has become a disaster for wild life, poultry industry and ecological environment. Moreover, HPAI H5N1influenza viruses have recently spread cross species and become more pathogenic in mammalian species, thus they pose an imminent threat to human health, food safety, local social stability and wild life. Once the HPAI H5N1virus get the ability to efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission, the attendant pandemic will bring disaster to human society. Under the global change of natural and social environment, to control the pattern of infectious diseases and strengthen the control and early warning of infectious diseases, to develop appropriate control strategies and measures to maximally reduce the risks of infectious diseases and their losses will be the pressing issues for China in21st century.In this study, taking the mainland of China as the study area, I collect data on HPAI H5N1outbreaks, livestock production, weather records and ecological data,. Based on the geographic information system, I study the characteristics of HPAI H5N1, including the following three aspects: (1) The temporal dynamics of HPAI H5N1in China, including:①the time-series characteristics of the outbreak,"Wild Bird-Poultry-Human" time lag relationship in China.②HPAI H5N1outbreak time, spatial relations and the space-time characteristics based on K function.(2) Based on spatial scanning cluster analysis method, I analyze HPAI H5N1outbreaks in China, including:①Time clusters and②space clusters.③Using phylogenetic analysis to analyze the H5N1hemagglutinin (HA) sequences to determine the relationship between genetic distance and time as well as space.(3) I study the relationship between the HPAI H5N1and the environmental risk factors in China, including:①Pultry outbreak of HPAI H5N1in ecological niche model;②Wild birds outbreak of HPAI H5N1in China in ecological niche model;③Related analysis of environmental risk factors and outbreaks of HPAI H5N1.Creative points of the study lie in that we have included other environmental variables and socio-economic data to conduct an integrated analysis, rather than just focus on climatic variables, A comprehensive analysis of space-time characteristics of HPAI H5N1outbreaks in China, using ecological niche models to explore the environmental risk factors for H5N1outbreaks and the link between them. We also recognize that limitations of the study, including issues related to potential underreport, the use of monthly data, and the lack of socio-economic data, which plays an important role in the transmission of the infectious disease.