Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis Of Postoperative Complications And Discriminant Model Establishment In Esophageal Cancer Postesophagectomy

Objective：To investigate the main risk factors for postoperative complications，andestablish Logistic regression model to predict complications in esophageal cancerfollowing esophagectomy．Methods：The data of1197esophageal cancer patientsunderwent esophagectomy between January1997and December2010were analyzedretrospectively．Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the risk factors forpostoperative complications in those patients．Results：Univariate statistical analysisshowed18factors was closely related to postoperative complications in the40factors，Among them age, liquid diet, weight loss＞10%,COPD, heart disease, diabetes,malnutrition, cirrhosis of the liver, white blood cell count, lesion length, physician surgicaloperation, surgical approach, anastomotic, surgical time, intraoperative blood loss,intraoperative blood transfusion, invaded the surrounding organs and TNM stage Ⅲ werethe risk factors. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that postoperativecomplications were associated with age，chronic obstructive pulmonary disease （COPD），diabetes mellitus，heart diseases，surgeon’operative volume，position of the anastomoticstoma，operative time，blood loss，invasion to the adjacent organ，TNM stagingⅢ．TheLogistic regression model wasP=1／[1+e^{（18.629-0.223X1-2.418X2-0.885X3-1.760X4-1.549X5-0.779X6-0.939X7-1.072X8-1.195X9-0.916X10）}]．Conclusion：age，chronic obstructive pulmonary disease （COPD），diabetes mellitus，heart diseases，surgeon’operative volume，position of the anastomotic stoma，operativetime，blood，invasion to the adjacent organ，TNM stagingⅢ were the independent riskfactors associated with complications in esophageal cancer post esophagectomy．TheLogistic regression model is established．...