Studies On The Relationship Between Upper Respiratory Infectious Diseases And Meteorological Conditions In Beijing

Respiratory disease has become the fourth largest cause of death of the city in our country, and the largest cause of death of the countryside. Respiratory diseases undermine lung function, eventually leading to the patient’s disability or death. Upper respiratory tract infection could happen anytime in a year, and anybody could get it. Thus, the relationship between upper respiratory tract infection and meteorological conditions draw more and more attention. This paper collects the data of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits of two hospitals in Beijing during2009to2011, and the data of daily meteorological factors, and analyze the relationship between upper respiratory tract infection and meteorological factors by using human body comfort index, synoptic pattern and multiple linear regressions. The results show that:(1) Comparing and analyzing three human body comfort index expressions and their classification. The result shows that the results of human body comfort index expression which based on the golden section method are the most reasonable. The results of corresponding the upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits shows that the number of visits increased with increasing temperature in summer and the number of visits increased as the temperature decreases in autumn and winter.(2) Classify the weather types for seasons, the results are:In spring, the larger diurnal pressure, diurnal temperature and smaller relative humidity are the major meteorological factors which impact on the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits. In summer, the high temperature and high relative humidity are the major meteorological factors which impact on the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits. In autumn, the low temperature and high relative humidity are the major meteorological factors which impact on the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits. In winter, the low temperature and low relative humidity are the major meteorological factors which impact on the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits. The number of male emergency department visits is bigger than the number of female emergency department visits in different seasons. Meteorological elements had different impact on people who in different ages in winter. People who are0-44years old are more sensitive with smaller relative humidity and temperature. People who are older then45years old are more sensitive with smaller relative humidity and larger diurnal temperature. (3) The linear correlation analysis reveal that there existed positive correlation between the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits and diurnal temperature, sunshine duration in spring. There existed negative correlation between the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits and relative humidity, precipitation, maximum wind speed in spring. In the summer, there existed positive correlation between the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits and average temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity. There existed negative correlation between the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits and diurnal pressure, diurnal temperature, maximum wind speed, extreme wind speed. In the autumn, there existed positive correlation between the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits and diurnal temperature. There existed negative correlation between the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits and average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, precipitation. In the winter, there existed positive correlation between the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits and average pressure, maximum pressure, minimum pressure, average wind speed, maximum wind speed, sunshine duration. There existed negative correlation between the number of upper respiratory tract infection emergency visits and average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, precipitation.(4) The multiple linear regression model are built-in this paper by using75%of the original data set, and the other25%of the data are used for the validation set. The results show that the models of four seasons are credible by means of statistical testing. The Pearson correlation coefficients between the predictive values and the original values in four seasons are0.745,0.654,0.682and0.922. The forecast accuracy rates of four seasons are73.85%,71.79%,69.09%and78.57%.In summary, the body comfort of Beijing has great influence on the outburst of the respiratory tract infection. The disease incidence reveal as the high-temperature effect in summer and the cold effect in winter, but the disease incidence in spring and autumn are relative low. The study of the relationship between the weather type and the incidence of the respiratory tract infection show that the weather with larger daily temperature range and lower relative humidity in spring, the weather with higher temperature and higher moisture in summer, the weather with higher moisture and lower temperature in autumn and the weather with lower temperature and lower moisture in winter are four main weather types that cause the increasing of the incidence of the respiratory tract infection. This also reflects that different seasons with different configurations of temperature and moisture are essential in causing the respiratory tract infection. These research findings and the prognostic equation of the incidence of the respiratory tract infection in Beijing based on above studies could provide science and technology support for the forecasting of the incidence of the respiratory tract infection in Beijing.