Earthquake Casualties Influence Factors Analysis And The Formulas For Calculating Casualties

Because of sudden and unpredictability, earthquake is one of the most threateningnatural disasters. Our country is located in the two earthquake belts which called Eurasianseismic belt and Circum Pacific seismic belt, so the destructive earthquake occurredfrequently. The earthquake casualties event is outstanding social calamity, rapid casualtiesassessment of earthquake emergency response after the earthquake has importantsignificance.Based on the analysis of existing estimation methods of the earthquake casualties, thispaper used the structure model to select parameters for the establishment of earthquakecasualties estimation formula through analyzing of scientific of parameters,post-earthquake attainability, the influence of parameters on the number of casualties andintercross of parameters. The value of parameters was confirmed by questionnaire and themethod of historical documents. At last, based the regression analysis of collected datas ofearthquake cases by computer software, the scientific, feasible and accurate earthquakecasualties estimation formula was eastablished.The number of earthquake casualties caused by building collapse accounted for thelargest proportion. The parameters of estimation formula were selected in this paperthrough the influence factors analysis of earthquake casualties caused by building collapse.The lethal event caused by building collapse is a complex system because of the influenceof various factors and non-quantitative completely. Thus, based on the ideological ofsystem engineering, the hierarchical model of influence factors of earthquake casualtiescaused by building collapse was established. Through discussion of the feasibility andattainability of system structure factors, the on-ventricular rate, the total population and thebuilding collapse rate were selected to be used as parameters of the earthquake casualtiesestimation formula.This paper collected earthquake cases related data in Sichuan-Yunnan region by themethod of historical documents since1990, and the on-ventricular rate questionnaire incorrelated regions was completed. Through data analysis and regression analysis based onthe modeling software, the accurate earthquake casualties estimation formula was acquired.And the earthquake casualties in Weining County of Guizhou Province were estimated bythe formula.Through the calculation by the formula, the earthquake casualties in any region can be estimated accurately. To some extent, the earthquake casualties formula of this paper canprovide a foundation for the deployment of the rescue, the division of the relief phase andthe emergency planning.