Wind Farm Super Short-term Power Forecast Method Research

With the rapid expansion of wind power generation scale, the potential hazards on safety and stability of power grid caused by wind power generation has become increasingly prominent. In order to realize the active power control to ensure the stable active power output of a wind farm, high-precision ultra-short-term wind power forecasting, which can provide the maximum power reference of each wind turbine, can be introduced to optimize the scheduling and dispatch strategy of active power control.To solve the stability problems caused by the randomness and intermittent of wind, some studies and analysis have been carried out in this article.1. To achieve the active power stability of a wind farm, an active power control strategy has been proposed, which is based on ultra-short-term wind power forecasting. With the centralized control of wind turbines by active power control, a wind farm can realize active power tracking under the dispatching of power grid.2. Taking into account the active power forecasting requirement of the active power control strategy, an ultra-short-term wind power forecasting method has been proposed in this article. Based on time series forecasting method, this method introduces two data processing technologies:wavelet de-noising and weakening buffer operator, to eliminate the impact caused by the random component of wind speed sequence.Finally, with reference to the simulations of different wind power forecasting methods and active power control of a wind farm, results show that: firstly, the improved time series forecasting method, which is based on wavelet de-noising and weakening buffer operator, has the best precision and stability in the five forecasting methods introduced in this article; secondly, accurate power tracking can be achieved by the active power control strategy which is based on the improved active power forecasting method.