The Empirical Study Of Relationship Between Population Structure And Housing Price In Guangzhou City

As a special commodity, house has the characteristics of consumer goods and investmentgoods. In recent years, due to the overheated investment in real estate market, the housing pricesof cities has been rising continually, which added to the burden on residents of the local.Although there are so many factors affecting the housing price, the effect from population whoare users and demand of house can’t be ignored. This thesis takes Guangzhou City for example,selects housing price and population structure as the objects of study. It analyses the relationshipbetween the natural population structure (age structure, sex ratio), social and economicalpopulation structure (family size, income, industrial structure of the population, peopleeducational structure), the regional population structure (the proportion of non-agriculturalpopulation, migration) and housing prices. First, the thesis explains their relationship fromeconomic theories, then, based on the data of Guangzhou City from1990-2009, uses the SVARmodel, impulse response function and variance decomposition method, comes to the conclusionsthat are industrial structure of the population, age structure, people educational structure and thenon-agricultural population have been causing housing prices raising, but sex ratio, family size,income, population migration haven’t related to it. From the natural population structure aspect,the total variance of the housing price changes in Guangzhou came from the age structure ofpopulation mainly, from the social and economic population structure aspect, mostly came frompeople educational structure, and from the geographical population structure aspect, theproportion of non-agricultural population contributed more. In the short term, the industrialstructure of the population and the proportion of non-agricultural population have beeninfluencing housing prices, while in long-term, the age structure of population and peopleeducational structure affecting more. Finally, the paper offers some suggestions from the aspectsof income distribution, urbanization control, population increment control and housing securitysystem optimization.